GREY:NEVDQ - Post by User
Comment by
bogfiton Oct 29, 2021 12:28pm
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Post# 34063969
RE:Remember the 70's
RE:Remember the 70'sYou don't have to go back to the '70's, we had the same situation occur during the aught years. Before he was sent to China, Stephan Roach at Morgan Stanley observed that all modern recessions began with an oil shock, which he defined as a rapid increase in the price of oil. Unfortunately for him, those who see farther are always early, and when the recession he forecast didn't appear for another 3 years, he was mocked and sent away. Roach's thesis was that imbalances in macro fundamentals would cause the recession, an oil shock would be the trigger, and at that time we had triple deficits in balance of trade, government budget, and currency account.
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