RE:RE:RE:ORA trading close to 52wk lowJust a reminder Aura dosn't pay a 8.5% dividend every year. The board sets the dividend payment at the end of each year with the expectation to pay min 20% of after tax earnings. Last year Aura paid out just over $1.00 CDN was more than the 20%, I think of it as a special div hopefully it grows every year. Markets still not giving much love to Aura down -11.7% last 52wks on +20% increase to production and +50% increase in copper price. I still believe the main drag is the lack of news on construction of the new Almas mine in Brazil. I also agree higher CDN$ vs US$ the poor performing brazilian stock market and perhaps margin calls and selling anything of value + plug in local currency vs US$ could be part of reason for disconect from fundamental valuation on Aura.
Estimated forward PE for 2022 is 3.76x at current $12.00 share price, average forcast gold stocks PE in 2022 is 13.34x. 12mos price target Aura is $20.29 +69% from todays $12.00 trading price not including any div payment for 2021. The target assumes a PE of 7.5x. While the share liquidity improved somewhat by listing in Brazil the lack of other gold miners on the exchange has not allowed an easy comparison for retail investors in Brazil.
In the past before 2017 and a new ownership, new management group Aura had a poor record of performance on Canadian exchange and remains a show me story. You would think after being named the best performing stock for the TSX in the past 3 years it would attract the average PE for 2021 of 14.99x. Not the current estimate of 8x.
The lack of volume in Canada also makes shares easy to short and take out stop loss orders, in the past when the shares became severly undervalued you can also see large swings up due to lack of volume so it works both ways.
Current trading would suggest sellers currently in controle. Can also be sold for a tax loss this year if sold for max gain and repurchased last year at a higher price. My guess of course is that some are selling at a loss to off set massive gains this year on other investments and will look to buy back towards end of year in Dec or early next year setting them up for a possible rally next year. Crazy how such low volume sold or bought can really effect the share price, but thats how the market works.