RE:RE:RE:RE:Edwards SNC has three (3) completely disparate assets;
1. The good consisting of Engineering Services.
2. The bad consisting of 1.2B LSTK contracts to complete at rate of 200-300 m/Q or < 1B as of Dec 31
3. The booty (le magot) consisting of the 407 et al.
1. The good: Adjusted EBIT Eng'g services: 145m in Q3.
EBITDA of 174m in Q3.
EBIT (Jan 1 to Sep 30): 423m (9 months).
Assuming 3.5% growth or an EBIT of 600m in 2022, we have a value of 20.5x or 82$/sh (see below 150m sh)
Source: Slide 17:
https://www.snclavalin.com/~/media/Files/S/SNC-Lavalin/investor-briefcase/en/2021/q3-2021-conference-call-presentation.pdf
2. The bad: Slide 23:
LSTK Eglinton (150m) and Trillium (275m) are mostly complete by year end without about 300m to complete both (< 2$/share). Loss was 30m this Q. They are claiming them and are confident to be paid. Honestly I put the liability here at 350m or 2$ per share.
3. The booty: Capital (2.5B) very largely convers all liabilities (NET debt, fines, potential unpaid claims) and a buyback program to cancel 25.5m shares bringing float down to 150m shares.