43% FCF @ $83.57 oil --- We ***could*** get a Q3 surpriseI noticed an error in the calcs in my previous posts.. plz use the figure presented here.
I decided to draft up a quick calc to show why I own so much of this company (600,000 common and 400,000 mostly ITM options)
This just shows the FCF they can produce at current price.
The COP includes CAPEX
EDIT: 'Production' is for the year
For VET, the actual #'s are a bit different when u take WCSB gas and TTF into account, but for simplicity, i just used Oil price on all their BOE's
(they are 50/40/10 oil/NG/Distillate)
.. this may seem aggressive, but I also ignored their Brent pricing, Brent + $10 on their AUS production... so i figured it more or less balanced out
Again, the goal here is simple presentation
At $83.57 WTI and $53.95 COP (including ~$375,000,000 CAPEX), FCF is $943,380,000 over 12 months.
They will be under their 1.5x debt/FFO right NOW.
-----> ratio = $1,789,000,000 / $1,318,000,000...([86,000 * 365] * $42{slides}) = 1.36x
On that note, I expect the FULL div to be back in conjunction with Q4 ER in March....
....but seeing as how they are making ~ $40 bbl FCF, a 5 cent montly starter div would be nothin.... [60 cents /share vs FCF potential of $5.82]
That starter div would be $97 mm for 12 months.