SPCEO1 wrote:
I suspect there is a good chance they do know if TH-1902 is working or not already. They may not yet have enough evidence to make that statement out loud, but they could easily have enough to know what is highly likely to be the case when all the required tests are completed. I suggest this because they have successfully and safely dosed patients at the 150% of normal Docetaxel level and they likely have given several doses to patients already at that level. And that level is high enough to generate results. Now, we can't be exactly sure about the timing of things since they have not revealed enough specific info about that but a little more than two weeks ago they told us that the one patient dosed at the 200% level had some reaction, but not enough to start the protocol regarding how the trial deals with adverse reactions. So, and I am totally guessing here, the first patient, of a total of three, to get a dose at the 150% level could have easily gotten their first dose 6 weeks earlier than the first person who got the dose at the 200% level, maybe even more. If so, this patient may have had their third dose already or may be very close to getting it. Now, that requires that patient to have remained healthy enough to get more doses and there is no guarantee that is the case. It is also requires that first patientto have a sortilin overexpressing tumor and that might not be the case either. But if we assume 3-4 doses are required to see some scientifically provable progress on tumor regression, TH could already have seen, or shortly will see, enough evidence to prove the concept behind TH-1902. I am not sure how long they wait following a treatment before they check for tumor shrinkage but that needs to be factored into the equation too.
Now, let's suppose TH already does have enough info to give a PoC. I don't expect them to share that with us immediately for both scientific reasons (they want to have data that shows beyond a shadow of a doubt before they say anything) and financial reasons. They have a convertible redemption possibility inmid 2023 and the NASH trial to finance, not to mention a lot of spending on various cancer research opportunities that will become high priorties when PoC is achieved, so a fund raising is almost certainly on the near term horizon. Setting up the ATM is another indicator of that.
Given the high probability of a fund raising in the not too distant future, it is self evident that the best time to do that would be shortly after announcing the phase 1a results that include preliminary indications of tumor shrinkage as excitement around the stock should build rather quickly at that point aided by a new glowing Cantor report (although it is always worthwhile to remember this is TH, so it may take longer than we might rationally expect or find reasonable for that excitement to build).
So, even if TH do already know, or will shortly know, I still don't expect us to know until around the end of the year at the earliest. But it may account for the excessive use of optimisitc language when they talk about TH-1902. If they did run into further trouble at the 200% dosage level, then we might hear earlier as the trial might come to a faster end, but that seems like something we should not be counting on. If the current melt-up in the market continues, that might influence TH to try to get the info out as fast as they can to take maximum advantage of bubble conditions for their offering.
In any event, we are getting much closer to getting the really important piece of info we have all been waiting for. The next 6-8 weeks will likely seemlike an eternity and it could easily be that the right patients were not in the right place at the right time to get PoC in phase 1a. But if we do get it, the stock will no longer be pinned to $3.50 per share! And some of those dream scenarios will start seeming more realistic.