CIBCEQUITY RESEARCH
November 2, 2021 Flash Research
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL GROUP INC.
Q3/21 First Look: Not Missing A Beat
Our Conclusion
CIGI kept its beat strike alive in Q3/21; it has now exceeded consensus estimates for every quarter since the pandemic began. Adjusted EBITDA of $124MM came in above our Street-high $120MM estimate and $103MM consensus. There was an Investment Management carried interest of $19MM, up from $2MM a year ago; this is a recurring part of the business and shows how Investment Management has increased its importance as a recurring-revenue growth driver. Even if we exclude the $17MM variance (and assuming no incremental expenses), it puts adjusted EBITDA at $107MM, still a beat vs. the Street. See revenue and adjusted EBITDA variance table in Exhibit 1 on following page.
Key Points
The Q3 beat by CBRE US last week was driven by robust capital markets and suggested CIGI's results would be good. CIGI’s revenues of $1.02B were well above our $895MM estimate and $811MM consensus. Adjusted EPS of $1.27 beat our $1.11 estimate and $1.05 consensus. CIGI drove strong 48% revenue growth (up 46% ex-FX) across service lines, particularly Capital Markets (up 88%, 85% ex-FX) and Investment Management (up 88%, 50% ex-carried interest). Regions that stood out were the Americas (up 46%, 45% ex-FX) and Asia Pacific (up 56%, 45% ex-FX).
CIGI increased its financial outlook for the remainder of 2021 on signs of ongoing momentum. Management now expects full-year results to exceed the previously stated range outlooks for both revenues (up 20%-30%) and adjusted EBITDA (up 25%-35%).