EDINBURGH—Yes, prime minister, Canadians do indeed know.
As Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said at the end of his whirlwind trip through the G20 summit in Rome and the COP26 leaders’ meetings in Glasgow on global warming, Canadians are well aware that a reckoning on climate change is at hand.
“I think Canadians know. Our world is changing, our climate is changing. And quite frankly, climate change is a reality that is going to transform our lives — whether we reach 1.5 degrees or not,” Trudeau said.
But what we know and how we handle it are two different things.
As an economy based on natural resources and built around vast distances, Canada has an overwhelming task before it — even more so given the amount of change Trudeau committed to or doubled down on at the two summits.
Often Canada comes to global meetings with its chequebook in hand to help pay for various initiatives, especially in developing countries. And that happened a few times in Rome and Glasgow. But over the past few days, Trudeau upped the stakes of big election promises by showcasing them to world leaders, and also signed on to a pile of pledges and commitments that, if they’re fully implemented, will require reforms in how every corner of the country works.
Of course, the biggest adjustment will have to come in the oil and gas sector. Trudeau’s opening gambit at the COP26 meetings was to make the same promise to the international community that he made to voters in the election campaign: he will cap emissions at their current levels and tighten the screws over time.
“That’s no small task for a major oil and gas producing country,” Trudeau told the plenary. “It’s a big step that’s absolutely necessary.”
Alberta and Newfoundland certainly know this (protestations from Alberta Premier Jason Kenney aside).
In the same speech, Trudeau reconfirmed an election commitment that by 2035, Canada will have set up a cleanelectricity grid across the country and drivers will only be able to buy zeroemissions vehicles.
That’s a commitment for Ontario and Quebec, where auto production is undergoing a metamorphosis and hydroelectricity will soon be something we can’t get enough of. Trudeau’spledges didn’t stop there. Next stop: oceans. Canada agreed to sustainably manage 100 per cent of all the ocean area under its jurisdiction within five years. Atlantic Canada, British Columbia and the Arctic, take note.
And forests: Canada signed onto a pledge to stop deforestation around the world, and in the process committed to addressing the forces that destroy forests and more fully engaging Indigenous peoples in forest management. There’s not a region in the country where that commitment doesn’t hit home.
Canada’s pledge on methane goes beyond the 30 per cent reduction other countries pledged to this week. Trudeau highlighted a recent commitment to cut methane emissions from oil and gas by 75 per cent by 2030. That’s the Prairies again.
Just as big was the commitment made by capital markets.
In parallel with COP26, former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney announced Wednesday that his sustainable finance initiative to have institutional investors commit to entrenching net-zero emissions in their corporate activity now covers $130 trillion U.S. in assets. Trillion with a T.
Canada’s big banks signed on a few weeks ago, adding to the worldwide momentum pushing money out of fossil fuels and into renewables. Regulators, including Canada’s, are busy designing rules to ensure they don’t fudge. Toronto, Calgary and investors of all shapes and sizes will feel the effects.
Usually, summitry is a point in a process of important but nearly imperceptible change. But this time, if we’re serious about the commitments, the stack of documents and renewed promises will require many, many Canadians to hustle.
To be sure, the pledges and promises don’t come out of nowhere, and the economy has started adjusting. Oil and gas companies are pushing hard to find low-carbon production techniques so that they can remain viable under the new rules. Clean energy is all the rage, both for investors and government subsidies. Policy makers and the private sector have been chipping away at sustainability in the oceans and in our forests for years. And when it comes to zero-emissions vehicles, the public infrastructure and private investment for the switch are both on the upswing.
But with an ever-increasing carbon price now in place, along with the stack of international pledges, the transition to a low-carbon economy is about to get very real, with all the winners and losers that entails.
For now, the government’s “just transition” focus has been on legislation to re-employ displaced oil and gas workers. For sure, that’s all worthwhile. But because climate change requires broad change, the disruption in Canada will go far beyond that workforce.
“Right now, we’re seeing the country coming together to say ‘this is our moment. This is the moment where we as Canadians, we as a world, we need to make that transformation happen,’ ” Trudeau told reporters as he was wrapping up his trip.
It is certainly a moment. We need a lot more thought about how to make it a moment that works for all of us.