Politics Aside BCG has a failure rate of up to 40% for high-grade NMIBC. Based on which study you look at, add another ~7 to 20% who are considered BCG intolerant (I.e. had to discontinue BCG treatment due to treatment-related morbidity/toxicity). Additionally, there was an overall 15-40% noncompliance rate noted after 1 year of BCG treatment based on two international studies done in the past 8 years. Even though the interim data from ImmunityBio's N-803 + BCG combo trials show promise (for BCG-unresponsive & BCG-naive patients), such a protocol can't avoid the reality of BCG intolerance & the requisite treatment-intensive protocol that is so patient "unfriendly" in terms of quality of life/personal-social impact, which further increases the likelihood of treatment noncompliance....all imo.
Combine the above with the reality of the ongoing BCG shortage, high BCG/combo treatment costs & low efficacy rates of the two currently approved drugs, there should be significant opportunities for emerging novel treatments to capture a good portion of the market imo.
A journal excerpt re: BCG toxicity...
Efficacy and toxicity of intravesical Bacillus Calmette-Gurin therapy in elderly patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer
Matsuoka, Yuki; Taoka, Rikiya∗; Kohashiguchi, Kana; Tohi, Yoichiro; Miyauchi, Yasuyuki; Kato, Takuma; Tsunemori, Hiroyuki; Ueda, Nobufumi; Sugimoto, Mikio