RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:News out on Goblet trial with MerckThere are a number of us on here with similar opinions.
But with that said, if ONC could actually take palereorep through Phase IV and to market (go it alone, which ONC has talk about in the past) and with entering into CAR T with partners I would think ONC would be worth easily well over $25B. But ONC will never go it alone.
And by the ways, the FDA has already stated that there may be a short-cut to market (confirmed by Coffee), that I assume could happen at the end of a Phase III trial with only approximately 225 patients enrolled. This would be due to the biomarkers that supposedly "maybe be a" or "appears to be" a biomarker, that the Phase III trial WILL be designed around. Again, these types of dicsussions would not have taken place if palereorep did not work exceptionally well.
But given that we are only entering into Phase III, and cost of palereorep production is cheap, it is my expectation, that a buyout offer would potentially come between a range of $8B to $15B. Could be higher into the $15B to $18B. CAR-T could make that even higher, I have no idea as to the vastness of CAR T right now, other than it's very quickly up coming and big pharma is dumping billions into it.
But let's not forget the MAYO clinic's testing with CAR T and palereorep in mice actually KILLED the cancer. KILLED IT! Not just extend overall survival. I am certain that has huge potential. But, I do not know how to evaluate what that might be. Or timing.
I think $3B to $6B is way to low for parereorep. For a product that works across MULTIPLE drug classes and with enhancing MULTIPLE other big pharma's products like ROCHE's Tecentriq, PFIZER's Bevencio, INCYTE's Retifanlimab, MERECK's Kaytruda, NIH's Kyprolis, and BRISTOL MEYER's Opdivpo.
The MULITPLE drug class coverage is no small potatoes.
IMHO, my suggested buyout price is based on what other companies have been bought out at (with drugs that are specific to one drug class), where as Pelareorep is showing that it can span across multiple drug classes like mBC, Gasto, Melenoma and likley more. And face it, Cancer is one of the leading killers, so the market is larger than those other drug company's markets that have been bought out. So, ONC is going to be worth more than a drug company that resides in a single drug class with a smaller base of patients. Palereorep simply has a larger scope of use across multiple drug classes. Worth more $$$$$
But what do I know ?
Many will slam me here for that prediction. Go ahead, it's my opinion. LOL
A buyout is what I am waiting for, as noted in my previous posts. Only time will tell.
I am generally patiently waiting. Tough some days though. LOL
You do not have to listen to me at all. LOL
My actual number ???? My actual prediction ??? OK
Conservitively, around $13B by ROCHE (for many reason) and before the Phase III trail starts, and as I am expecting the Phase III trial to start mid 2022, I expect any buyout will have to occur before end of Q1 2022.
I have my doubts as to partnersip, and hope it is not.
Timing may vary some, but that is where my prediction/hopes are at. Pie in the sky ?????
I think the only thing that will change that is the CAR-T side. If ONC feels the CAR T side is huge $$$$$$$, ROCHE might not be able to afford ONC. Not sure ROCHE is into CAR T. Someone else might set up, or the company might sell of rights with royalties to different drug classes, and all kinds of deals. A slower return for us shareholders. But I rather doubt big pharma wants to be part of a royalty agreement. They want to own and control.
So, I will stick with my number until something changes. Good luck!