RE:Market Efficiencies, CAD O&G and CPGI tend to agree with a lot of your thesis Cash but there's one thing I'd like to add, which I've commented on(as well as others) that, CPG stands out as being underpriced and rangebound because of the overhang of Shell's liquidation of their holdings.
This is an overhang that many, if not most, companies don't have, and IHMO is the reason for treading water lately.. although I don't know the exact number of shares Shell has left to dispose of, I'd bet they're intentions are to liquidate most, if not all the 20 million they have left, before year end. So with that in mind if I were acumulating a position, knowing Shell is unloading, I wouln't chase the price up either.. as you say.. this time next year people will be kicking themselves they didn't load up at these prices.. JMHO
As far as the dividend.. CPG just weeks ago increased the modest divi from 1/4 cent per quarter to 3 cents per quarter.. although they have room to bump it up even more in 2022, they can't be criticized for NOT increasing it. Many companies completely eliminated their divi's through this last downturn.. CPG maintained a small one.. so patience will prove to be worth it for those willing to wait more than a day or week for immediate gratification.. ;-)
Patience grasshopper..!! LOL ;-)