Wilan revenues and cash flow - Q3 needs to be bigIf I have it right, fiscal 2020 Wilan revenues were about $70m (including under $500k for 2020Q4), and Wilan revenues for 2021H1 are about 10m. That means 2 quarters of reporting to make up the $60m difference.
Unless I have missed something, and Hill's comments can still be relied on, Wilan Q3 revenues need to be BIG in order to no dissapoint the market.
In the Q2 Conf Call Hill stated: "Despite the quarter variability on a relatively consistent basis, WiLAN delivers significant annual cash flow. We expect that to be the case again in 2021. This means that we're looking for a strong second half from the business, and we remain encouraged by the pipeline of agreements the team is working on."
If I were to bet, I would be betting Wilan's Q3 revenues will not dissappoint and surprise many shareholders. Otherwise, unless I have missed something, QTRH credibility may be at risk.
If Wilan 2021Q3 is weak, that still leaves 2021Q4 revenues to make up the shortfall. However, if they will need Q4 to make fiscal 2021 comparable to fiscal 2020, QTRH may revise its comments about 2021 being comparable. The share price will likely drop.
Hill has played this through in his mind. I cannot see him disappointing both old QTRH shareholders and the $57.5m debenture investors now.
If there was going to be disappointment, it would have been announced by now, and the terms of the debenture deal would have been different.