Market share could rise to 31% by 2026 !!! The battery market is growing in leaps and bounds, spurred by the electrification of the global fleet of passenger cars. Nickel analyst expect nickel-based battery chemistries to hold the largest share of the market by 2030, slightly ahead of iron-based batteries, with other solutions trailing far behind these two main groups.
Limited access to nickel could throw a spanner in the wheels of this forecast, however, as the battery industry has to compete for supply with other growing industries, such as steelmaking.
Unlike other essential battery raw materials used for cathodes such as lithium, the battery market is not the dominant end-user for nickel in the short term. According to our estimates, the stainless-steel industry accounts for more than 70% of current global nickel demand, with the battery market making up less than 10% of global nickel metal demand in 2020.
Nickel metal demand from the stainless-steel industry is expected to grow at about 5%/y, while the market for batteries is poised to explode. In an unconstrained supply scenario, batteries could require more than 1 million t of nickel metal by 2030, quadrupling from the current demand of 0.25 million t.
The battery market only accounts for 9% of the current global supply of about 2.3 million t, but forecasts show its market share could rise to 31% by 2026. This surging demand from the battery market will place huge pressure on the nickel supply chain in less than a decade.