Q4 FCFFCF in Q3 was around $500 million. The average WTI price in Q3 was ~$70 U.S. So far in Q4 the average price has been somewhere around $78 U.S..If you extrapolate that $8 U.S. differential you get about another $60-$70 million more FCF on top of the $500 million.
The Q3 Henry Hub NG Spot Price in July $3.84 U.S., in August 4.07 U.S.,in September 5.16 U.S. The average of these 3 months is about $4.35 U.S. So far in Q4 the average price has been more than $5.00++ U.S. or almost 20% more. An increase in NG average price of $0.70 or $0.80 per MCF could add another $60-$80 million to FCF. The final component is the NGL production. Q3 average production was 50,891 per day x 27.92 Canadian average realized price or about $130 million Canadian for the quarter. Propane and other fuel prices have increased a lot in various markets, and this could another $20 million or so to FCF. If Q3 FCF was ~$500 million, the FCF in Q4 could be, very very roughly, another $150 million more, or $650 million or even more. If anybody out there has a clearer understanding of the numbers, it would be fun to have a glance at them. Anyone shorting these shares has to be very nimble or they might have their nuggets handed to them in a brown paper bag.