RE:Ultimate valuation Let's see. Here is my opinion. In early Q2 2022 KK will be producing ca. 460,000 tonnes Cu per annum (15% above nameplate). Cu current price $10,000 per tonne, so $4.6B and 40% to IVN, so $1.84B, and 1.2B shares, so $1.5 per share for a year of production at Phase 2, with Phase 3 getting very close. Assuming Cu price remains at about $10K per tonne. So at 10x earnings, share price would be $15 US. You can play around with the numbers, this is a reasonable calculation as Topadvisor1 taught us about a long time back. You can roughly double the numbers when Phase 3 comes on. Add some mania into the equation and who knows what can happen? I don't need mania to see the value. Who knows what the market will value IVN at in a year?
Now factor in that IVN has most likely discovered the largest and highest grade Cu district in history at a time of great demand for Cu. That'll help. I can't quantify how much it will help, but discovering and owning a large piece of an historic orebody, significant on a historical and planetary scale, it has to be very good.
Then there is the matter of the largest PGM orebody discovered in history I think, suitable for mechanised mining. Open in all directions I think, so big it is almost ridiculous. With a lot of Ni and Cu also. As sulphides, Ni sulfide is preferred mineral for battery raw material supply. Platreef begins production in 2024. I expect this will help.
Kipushi is also of interest. Highest grade Zn orebody known. Grade rules in this mining world. It'll provide some help to the share price going forward.
There are risks but everything has risk. In early 2023 the standstill agreement ends. What happens then? Are these risks tolerable for you? Their great team is performing wonders. The webcast was fine, the accomplishment of bringing this mine into production during a pandemic, early and under budget is amazing. Most of us were struggling to get toilet paper during this time. Along the way IVN enabled significant social improvements for their broader community partners. It's entirely up to you though, it's not for everyone.