RE:RE:Oil oil time to load upHaving a hard time chewing on the idea of any concessions of any kind to US drilling. Joe "Nimby" Biden has a long record of (at least trying) to prevent any further insfrastructure from being put in place for the old energy model. It would also be a big flip from the recent overtures to investigate pricing collusion with refiners/retailers on pricing at the pump. And even if he did, its a long time before any of that fresh juice hits the market.
It's looking like a shotgun approach to see if there is anything he can hit - OPEC, midstream, retail, partnering with China (cough, cough), continued begging to OPEC, etc.. I would bet hard against anything like 100M coming from SPR - he has some flexibility there, but nowhere near this level of pull.
I guess we will see soon enough, EIA will tell us this week if the leak on the SPR has continued, and whether any of it has found its way into the general inventories ... Ima guess another token ~3M drop. Once the Friday drop settles, conversation turns straight to OPEC for the December meeting.
Yup, Monday is Game On.
All just ramblings of a newbie of course, what do I know! glta
Tomsson wrote: Nuttall was right but wrong Oil trending lower on a Biden strategic reserve release next week. A 500,000 - 1M barrel per day deviation is $5.00 barrel movement on oil price. So while nuttall is right a 100M strategic reserve release is 1 day usage, spread out over time it will force the price of oil lower. HOWEVER BIDEN'S plan must include medium to longer term policies to be effective to reduce the price of oil. My take would be a 25% tax credit for U.S. companies to invest in pumping more oil and thus energy investments. You can't rely on OPEC. BIDEN has the cards, but the question is, WILL HE PLAY THEM ? For Nuttall, and you guys to rely on a couple countries to force oil prices higher is not a good investment thesis. I say oil prices heading lower, the trend is now not your friend. Heading back toward its mean ($55). Just like other commodities have after the bubble burst in commodities. If no plan from Biden beyond strategic reserves then, barring a global recession (still likely) oil likely to go back up to $80 in 9 months to a year. So as a previous ath shareholder there is no reason to own ath here. Too risky. Buy the dip would be logical, but a company that doesn't have a high cost of production. I still say ath dropping back to .80. I've posted here the last couple weeks and so far I have been right. Ath already peaked and will trend lower. I have provided my thesis which is not throwing darts at a board or relying on a monopoly to control prices.