RE:RE:RE:Partnership coming or not? No one believes cancer news…I've stated from day 1 it is a 6 month minimum, 12 month maximum to pitch, structure, sign an actual deal. So maybe it's 6, maybe 12, but no sooner than 6. We are 3 months are so into that at this point. The reason being that I do think there will be interest, but that to commit a mid-to-large pharma will take time to get behind the science, then you have the financial side of the deal. I've felt the unconventional route and lack of "perfect" Phase 2 data will mean the science guys have to put their reputation on the line and that can take more time. I also think PL knows he may not even need a partner so he's not giving it away. He's bought time to see what cancer delivers to the share price and attraction for the share and company.
So I don't think PL is wet behind the ears. He did what he had to do and put the best picture on it for shareholders. However, when you work your entire career in big pharma you're doing your sliver of the work in the sausage factory and you don't at all get invovled in the nitty gritty of the other aspects. That's not to say he won't be aware of deal parameters and perhaps he's been on teams looking at assets --I would assume he has. But big pharma has teams of people and does deals all day long and the deal making would be made at a different level. He's fairly new at NASH, the NASH space is changing and has been disappointing, and I think in reality he'd actually rather do this on his own and the partnering is purely because at this point in time, they don't have the means to fund it --pure and simple.
The cost rose a lot in order to get both the EMA and FDA on board and the share price never reflected any value for the NASH asset and he's stuck as shareholders have clearly stated they do not want another ONO -- not just us, but the new guys on the block too. If he raised for NASH when they're here for oncology, he'd be burning his 2-3 new large holders. But I think his desire and possible card in his pocket is that the oncology side shows very positive developments and gets reflected in the share price and makes the shares highly attractive. He will definitely use a higher price to not just to the ATM, but maybe cancel that and do a $100-150mil deal --enought to retire the convert if share is still below $14ish and fund NASH and one TH1902 IND through Phase 3. I just hope that's done at north of $10 so it's only 10-15% dilution this time. If cancer pans out, that should be their last ever capital raise. I'm ok with 110mil to 115mil shares outstanding. That should get them through to commercialization in cancer and through to the futility. Beyond that if cancer comes through they'll have plenty of free cash flow and opportunities to partner various combos and new drugs in their SORT1 platform that will bring money up front for them.
palinc2000 wrote: Wino
From the beginning you have mentionrd a time line of a year or so to conclude a partnership deal for Nash....This assumption sort of means that you think that Paul is wet behind the ears when it comes to deal making .....Paul has never even hinted at such a long timeline.
Maybe your theory is based on the premise that Thtx would start Phase 3 all on their own while still carrying a search for a partner.....
If not the latter your position is not very flattering for Paul....
quote=Wino115]I thought about the selling pressure too, but came to the conclusion that given the highly conservative nature of management, the fact most are remote still, and the fact we analyze every darn clue there is released or not, that I just don't think there is any group of investors that knows a whole lot more than we do about the cancer opportunity. So I discount that someone has ferreted out an aspect of the program to justify the selling.
Now that doesn't at all preclude someone from just determining they don't want to deal with the timeline, or the risk, or they are looking more generally at the cancer space and seeing numerous new technologies looking to tackle the issue; hence, a highly competitive space. Those can easily be reasons to move out, but I don't think it's that there has been a negative signal on the progress of the Phase 1a trial.
On NASH, they're now about 3 months in to a likely 6 to 12 month process. I think we'll have to wait still for any partnership discussions for NASH and, if and when they come about, don't expect a lot of upfront money changing hands.
Dcutter101 wrote: So let's Get NASH going!!!
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