My Answer to fatboy92's Question about Sellers HI fatboy92. You asked me about the continued selling we're seeing. Here are my thoughts on it.
I have had a number of shareholders tell me that they're buying. Few people tell me they're selling, although when I go back through my long list of Bioasis shareholder contacts, I realize that some have likely gone away.
There are people who are going to sell. It's usually expected that after long period of nonperformance that it will require about 20% to 30% of the outstanding shares to be traded before the stock can double. Some people just want out and nothing will change their minds. I think it's sometimes more of an emotional move than an investment decision.
It's impossible to accurately predict what will happen with Bioasis, but I think it's possible that many of the quick-trigger folks are long gone and that those who have waited this long will stay. I think they'll stay because the company has never had this much going on with so many partners.
Currently, Denali is worth about 285 times what Bioasis is worth and yet we're both in the same business, with Bioasis having always appearing to have the better technology. Success by Bioasis and xB3 should cause the Denali value to decline and Bioasis should gain a lot of that Denali value. A factor of 285 times leaves a lot of room for the Bioasis share price to go to be valued in the same league as Denali.
I think it's wise to remember that the Denali value is set by investors, not by Denali, and because of that, Denali's success may be a pretty good indication of the value of Bioasis. A factor of only one tenth of 285, or 28.5, would mean a BTI share price of about $8.50.
There will be some annoying selling whenever the bids are there. Maybe 5 million or more shares will have to trade before the share price doubles. I think the combination of shareholders who will hold and the fact that Bioasis is getting deeper into so many of its own and partnered programs on so many drugs with high potential value are together capable of moving the Bioasis share price upward more quickly that we might see with most other companies.
The programs being undertaken by Bioasis and its partners almost all have xB3 payloads that are already-proven drugs. The clinical success rate could be far higher for xB3 drugs than it is for other companies with their wholly new drugs. This is a big deal.
But we have to recognize that xB3 could, whether because of off-target potential caused by the high numbers of LRP-1 receptors in the brain or for some other reasons. But, the company has done dozens of animal studies without failure of any kind being reported. What we get get down to is that if one or two xB3 drugs succeed then the likelihood of success of all the others would be high.
I know I'm speaking in glowing terms but I don't have any other place to go with this. There is no compelling argument for failure. Some people like to throw out the old "you haven't done it yet" and "show me the money" arguments, but in fact, these are not arguments. They are logical fallacies. Man never flew in a machine until man flew in a machine. The pursuit of scientific goals that are based on good and evolving scientific theories and experience have a pretty good chance of working out, especially with Bioasis because of the already-proven payloads the company is working with.
Just let it unfold. I think it's going happen and that Bioasis will make some big news sometime soon. We need accomplishment that will reported in the biotech and financial media and I think that will happen.
In the end, I think that Bioasis can produce enough excitement to keep the share price outpacing sellers by a wide margin.
jd