RE:TDSB ; Rockit, The catalyst will be The Bond Market. The Fed has started to reduce the amount of bonds they are buying, but they are still buying. Their balance sheet is loaded with debt. To fight inflation they need to start raising interest rates. How far can they raise them before the interest on the debt crashes the market. (2%-2.5%). Inflation is at 6.2%, remember when you raise interest rates everyone including the government must pay the higher rates on their debt. The Fed is not going to be able to raise rates up to where inflation is at, and the jig will be up. The public will finally realize the emperor has no clothes. There is no solving this problem, there will be fiscal insolvency.
Now let's go back to the Bond Market, 10 year treasury notes are yielding 1 and 3/4%, Inflation will soon hit 8%, The Bond Market is much, much, bigger than the stock market. Bond holders are conservative investors, when they finally realize that the government is taking 5% of their money just to hold bonds, they will start to look around at other safe investments that carry little risk. The gold market will benefit from bond holders moving into buying gold. Gold is insurance against inflation. The gold market is very small it won't take many bond holders moving into the gold market to have a big effect. CHEERS