CashGreenGold wrote: fom a post I made at the village last week
even just 5 cents a month is a pittance vs the FCF they're making now:
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43% FCF @ $83.57 oil --- We ***could*** get a Q3 surprise
First of all, I wanted to thank posters who personally messaged me.
I'm not sure i'll ever be able to 100% leave this place, even tho after yesterday's BS i definitely wanted to.
Maybe the solution is to post LESS
I've been down that road before, and the posting volume slowly creeps up after a while. Being a cripple after my brain injury, and HAVING ONLY ANALYIS TO DO WITH MY TIME DOESN'T HELP.
In any event, I'm making this post because I noticed an error made in my previous post on VET.to I made here.
If you're using those figures, please discard them in favor of these. The error was in the CAPEX calc. I noticed it because I thought the per bbl FFO--->FCF (the capex amt) looked low.
I decided to draft up a quick calc to show why I own so much of this company (600,000 common and 400,000 nearly all ITM options).
This just shows the FCF they can produce at current price.
The COP includes CAPEX
'Production' is for the year
For VET, the actual #'s are a bit different when u take WCSB gas and TTF into account, but for simplicity, i just used Oil price on all their BOE's
(they are 50/40/10 oil/NG/Distillate)
.. this may seem aggressive, but I also ignored their Brent pricing, Brent + $10 on their AUS production... so i figured it more or less balanced out
Again, the goal here is simple presentation
At $83.57 WTI and $53.95 COP (including ~$375,000,000 CAPEX), FCF is $943,380,000 over 12 months.
They will be under their 1.5x debt/FFO right NOW.
-----> ratio = $1,789,000,000 / $1,318,000,000 --->([86,000 * 365] * $42{slides}) = 1.36x
On that note, I expect the FULL div to be back in conjunction with Q4 ER in March....
....but seeing as how they are making ~ $30 bbl FCF, a 5 cent monthly starter div would be nothin.... [60 cents /share vs FCF potential of $5.82].
We saw what increasing the div did to SU's price when they had their ER, so i hope VET took notice. And they wouldn't be jumping the gun of their 1.5:1x FFO:Debt target as they are already there (above).
That starter div would be $97 mm for 12 months. They can up it to full reinstatement in March tho.
I'm probably just dreaming, but dreaming is all we can do with these stubbornly low O&G equity prices with $83.57 WTI