Buy Back = Long Term Investor...why I bought more todayHey Cash Flow... I just bought another 25,000 shares at 0.68 today. Consider it a buyback because I won't be selling... these shares are now out of the float.
Why buy now... I've been buying for a while under $0.70 after selling between 0.78-0.84. At one point held 385,000 (trying to lower average cost). Sold some to buy a car.
Now I look to PNE to pay the insurance and operating costs with dividends starting in mid to late 2022.
Operations Fundamentals:
1) Sold some stock while the run was on and we were in the shoulder season (where the bigest risk was for storage increases and price drops)
2) Buy back at lower oportunistic prices than where I sold... never sold more than 25% of my position and got all my costs back.
3) Winter has come to Germany who is desperately (historically was 60% below) low on storage.
4) Russia is refusing to ship pipeline gas through Ukraine and Belarus. Germany has refused to certify Nordstream 2 until the pipeline ownership is arms length from Gazprom (the producer). Personally I think Germany is also looking for the pipeline operator to not be in the political back pocket of Putin's Russia.
5) Current weather forecast in Europe is for the first cold weather to Hit Nov 24-Dec 4, colder by more than 2 standard deviations from the norm... this is very significant to those that understand normal distributions.
6) La Nina has been present for 2 months but now the typical La Nina weather forecast is starting to show up... Wetter = West coast and Colder = Midwest (Chicago) & East Coast & South East (Florida). 60% of population is in these regions and 77% of Resididential gas gas use is in these areas. Residential & Commercial (Malls) Gas is normally 30% of annual demand. Drops to 20% in shoulder seasoans. is 25% - 35% in Summer and up peaks at 60% during major winther chills.
https://www.natgasweather.com/gfs-16-day-temperatures-vs-normal/
The first bad weather (Mid west, East Coast, Florida) in the US is set to arrive tomorrow (Fri Nov 26- Sun Nov 28). First big continental cold arrives Day 10-16 of 16 day forecast (Dec 5-Dec 11)
Key take away: A major gas draw early in the season will solidify high prices for the rest of the winter as everyone will worry... Does the US have enough gas storage seeds FUD (Fear Uncertainty & Doubt)
7) US LNG volumes will be strong all winter as Europe and Asia fight for US Sailings of LNG.
US will look to Canada for additional gas to maintain energy security over the winter.