RealitiesGood morning and happy Friday!
I would like to offer some general NG opinion to the "It Will" discussion as llerod5 may have made the most reasonable comments with reservation regarding the winter season. The wild card to various Oil/Gas companies share prices wil be WTI futures etc. and we are getting our first taste today with it dropping like a stone.
My group agrees in fundamental premise that NG prices do need to remain stable at these current levels to maintain various share prices seen, but some realities lurk on the horizon should the anticipated harsh winter season not get underway soon regarding the US NE triangle (New York, Pittsburg, St. Louis)in particular. Many other factors we all have our differences of opinion when discussing verious company share prices tech versus fundamentals.
On tech10 year monthly NG is just coming off overbought going back to 2008. Without winter establishing its ugly head and soon we are already just 6 weeks or so away from seeing NG futures trading forward March contracts suggesting all bets may be off less spot price anomolies.
So what could that mean to share price over the next little while using BIR as an example only given it's current overvalued share price versus debt? Let's not forget yearend almost upon us, profit taking from a nice ride up and as well tax loss selling also becomes short term reality.
On the positive side should NG markets remain stable and Oil re-establishes its price uptrend from what could be a current drop to around the 66.50 area. (thx Joe Biden, idiot, Let's go Brandon, lol).
Bir if 6.00+ area holds, BIR on a 5 year chart sees 8.25 area as still doable, 9.00 area if winter does establish its ugly head in the next 2 weeks.
On the downside as follows:
3 year chart could see a drop to the 5.00 to 5.25 area
5 year chart could see a drop and bottom to the 4.50 to 4.75 area.
If so, from there looking farther out with assumed debt reduction, rising commodity prices etc. the sky could finally be the limit and a possible rise to an unbelievalbe 20.00 target.
As I suggested before in BIR's case I'm personally back in under the 5.00 mark for now all bets are off at 50/50 which way this thing may go.
For me it continues to support transitioning BIR profits into the well undevalued SDE for going forward. Both will have their day the question here is which stands to see the most in share appreciation for hopefully sometime realized in 2022. As Echo and the Bunnymen once sang " "Give me money....I want money", lol.
All good fun with Patience as usual being the key, cheers.