RE:Wilan 4 Yr Average Gross Margin Means Sell Wilan subsidiaryShareholders, a deeper analysis indicates that a licensing business fire sale is not warranted.
The licensing segment gross margin fluctuates dramatically, which is not surprising given the lumpiness of revenues. I went back to 2015 which provides 2 full years pre ITS. In addition, since the 2015 - 2018 the finacnials break out the below the line items you talked about in your post, this allows a reasonably estimate of EBITDA for the licensing segment.
Using your 1.25 USD:CAD conversion, Gross profit (and %) by year was reported as follows:
$000's 2015 $40,569 (31.6%)
2016 $35,956 (31.0%)
2017 $88,959 (70.7%)
2018 $-8,410 (-32.3%)
2019 $53,922 (50.8%)
2020 $32,055 (41.0%)
2021 (9 Mos) $4,973 (23.7%)
Selling/admin/R&D expenses were reported fro 2015 - 2018, as folows:
$000's 2015 $12,365
2016 $12,243
2017 $8,113
2018 $3,245
2017 represents a partial year implementation of cost reductions identified in the strategic review with the full impact realized in 2018. I've asked QTRH for a current range which can be applied to 2019 and forward. For now, I've used $5,000 annual cost for selling/admin/R&D expenses in the licensing segment.
The annual average estimated EBITDA for the licensing segment over the last 7 years is $28,387 (32.6%). By year, as follows:
$000's 2015 $28,204 (31.6%)
2016 $23,713 (31.0%)
2017 $80,846 (70.7%)
2018 $-11,658 (-32.3%)
2019 $48,922 (50.8%)
2020 $27,055 (41.0%)
2021 (9 Mos) $1,223 (23.7%)
Since most licensed IP is based on the partnership model with contingent legal representaion, opex costs for the licensing are minimized.
Key questions:
- Is 2021 an outlier (as was 2018) - and on what, other that retrospective analysis, is that based;
- Will the partnership model continue to be the finacnial arranegment of choice for patent holders who wish to monetize their IP; and
- Will minimal licensing opex be maintained?
If the answer to these questions is, "Yes" then it is reasonable to assume that the Wilan sub will provide, on average, $25M to $30M per year in funding for ITS.
This is not the dire picture your post presents shareholders. A fire sale is not warranted. As I strongly believe that any divestiture decision pivots on two key factors:
- The available ITS opportunities and their cost; and
- An assessment of forward forward acquisition costs