RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:FinancingMacRellen wrote: Yeah, timing a crash is near impossible. The most obvious time for a crash is when the Fed starts raising rates, since the low rates and the Fed's bond purchases are the major drivers behind historically high stock market valuations. But everybody knows this, so therefore it probably won't happen then...
And the Fed may not even get to hiking rates. If the market throws a tantrum during the tapering, the Fed will probably reverse course to try to prevent a major correction from becoming a crash. That could be gold's chance to shine.
OTOH, mining stocks would probably not be among the worst hit in a crash, since valuations are relatively low, and they should recover more quickly than the broad market. So I have no intentions of leaving the PM market, but I'd like to adjust my positions a bit if I get the chance - I'm too heavily into a few junior miners right now - there has just been too many good buying opportunities lately... But I'm not selling at current levels, that's for sure.
Ideally, PMs will soon start reacting like they "should" to inflation, which would give me an opportunity to adjust my portfolio before the crash occurs. And I believe some sort of crash has to happen. The Fed cannot inflate the market into eternity. A reckoning has to come some day, and I think it will be in the form of a broad market crash. It may be tomorrow, or it may still be years away, but I think it will happen sooner rather than later. (Another possibility would be that the stock market stays relatively flat or slowly descends while inflation eats up its real value over time.)
Anything could happen. The blueprint for dealing with market crashes--keep them short and sweet with massive intervention by the Fed--was followed in March 2020 and October 1987. 'Hosing down the market/fire with cash' is one description that comes to mind. Liquidity and plenty of it.
Governments won't admit it but the plan for dealing with trillions of debt is to repay it with 'inflated' dollars. That applies to both Canada and the US.
I won't speak about the American debt beyond observing that Biden tipped his hand when he increased!!! the pentagon budget and renominated the Fed chief banker for another term of money printing.
Trudeau Jr. is stupid enough to be utterly unaware of inflation. He is emulating his father's runaway deficits and debts.
We are now in the post-covid recession recovery. I know, it feels like a depression is around the corner. Is this environment the new normal? More inflation, money printing and inflated markets.
Regardless, inflation is here big time and precious metals are not cooperating...possibly because of cryptos?
From a distance I do like the conceptual leap whatshisname the ceo of SCZ took with the acquisition. I have no idea if it will reward shareholders.
SCZ has been an accurate proxy for the depressing turn silver has taken. It might be an accurate proxy should silver turn up. I'm willing to watch and wait.