RE:Short-Term PredictionsAlwaysLong683 wrote: Personally, I think trying to predict what NFG's share price will be in a month or 6-months or one year from now is rather pointless - and I mean no offense to those on this BB who post such speculation as they are entitled to present their views like anyone else, perhaps just for fun.
As an example right off the bat, take a look at the past 6 months or so. When NFG was trading at over 12.00 a share in May / June, would anyone long NFG and posting on this BB at the time have predicted that, before the year is out, NFG will trade below 7.00 while gold maintained a price of over 1,700,00 US per ounce......?
Looking forward, the uncertainty of the bias investigations conclusions (which apparently won't be revealed until January at the earliest) really throws a wrench into trying to determine if / when NFG's share price will recover in the early new year. When released, the results of the investigations will be an important (yet currently unknown) factor in the share price movement (or lack thereof) of the stock.
Speaking of which, does anyone know how far back NFG is going in re-assessing their published assay results to determine possible bias or the need for adjusted assay result figures, if any.....?
Use of the new PhotonAssay Method in producing future assay results sounds like a great idea, but the bottom line is still the assay results themselves. While it seems likely that those assays will be extremely good given past NFG assay results (provided there is no signficant downward revision of past assays when the conclusions of the possible bias investigations are revealed), the key will be the results themselves, not the method used to obtain those results.
Basically, my point is that, while I think the probability of a very profitable mine eventually being built to harvest the Keats / Lotto / Golden Joint trifecta of outstanding zones is high given what has been discovered to date (provided there isn't some earth-shattering downward revision of past assays or foul play at work) plus any other jackpots NFG may find along the rest of their extremely long Appleton Fault claims, trying to predict short-term price movements (i.e., 1 year or less) is a pure guessing game in my view - the predictions could come true, but they could just as easily miss the mark by a wide margin, so why speculate on the unknown......?
You make a lot of good points. None of us know what the future price will be of any equity but we do speculate because that is the nature of investing in exploration companies. It's all speculation. We speculate on the mineral resources a company may have in the ground and what they might discover going forward. Based on that and among other things we make an educated guess on what we think the market valuation of that company should be. That is why exploration companies are considered high risk. Anything that you can make 500% to 1000% on your money in a relatively short period of time also means you could lose most of it just as easily if things don't work out in your favour.
And even after an exploration company have a proven resource that is economical to mine investors still have to speculate to a certain degree on the future price of the commodity and even the mining costs associated with the operation which affects profits. Things have changed so quickly these past couple of years that it is safe to say to expect the unexpected. So invest according to your own personal situation.