RE:Investing in TLT.WT vs Commons
RoseHeaven wrote: Warrant Info
Expiry Date: August 22, 2024; Days to Expire: 993 days; Excercise Price:$0.35
Total Investment: $15,000
# of shares & warrant at current price (Share=$0.36, TLT.WT=$0.22)
Share=41,667
warrants=68,181
Share and Warrant Price in 2024
TLT price= $25 (say)
TLT.WT price=$24.65 (assuming no time value)
Profit from Share & Warrant in 2024
Profit from shares=$1,026,674 (6,844%)
Profit from warrant=$1,665,661 (11,104%)
Profit Comparison from $15,000 Investment
1) Profit from warrant is 11,104% compared to return from share is 6,844%
2) Profit from warrant is $638,987 higher than profit from shares
3) Profit from warrant = 1.62 x Profit from share
Hope this will be helpful to those who are interested to invest in TLT.WT
your math leaves out several crucial details:
- Fully diluted share count is 285M. A $25 share price implies a market cap of 7.1B.
- If, big IF, this treatment proves to be the approved gold standard for NMIBC BCG- unresponsive, the company has projected the market opportunity at peak annual sales of $1.1B.
- BP normally values buyout targets in a range of 1X peak sales and perhaps if the IP pipeline is robust and quite far along in efficacy/safety trials, they'll pony up significantly more.
- Early results are very encouraging and the February update could be a major catalyzing report but it's worth staying grounded in reality. Still a long road to go and a lot to prove out yet but based on real numbers even if Theralase does get this treatment to the finish line, it's very hard to imagine a market cap or potential BP buyout much higher than 1.1 - 1.5B.
- The rest of the pipeline (GBM, NSCLC and their SARS, Covid 19) are all pre-clinical and the cash on hand is needed to fund this phase 2 clinical study, so it's unlikely without significant grant funding these can be expeditiously advanced.