RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Crew down 6.2% Dear "Greatest Cheadle Ever" :
I seem to recall in the not so distant past a "Great Cheadle" tooting a horn on a $2.00/share prophesy that came true, then followed with an exit 2021 prediction of $4 and an exit of 2022 (with 40,000 boepd) of $6.
Your bullishness on Crew seems to be changing, & You'd take a $4.00 crossover to TOU shares?
BTW, TOU presentation pg. 21 reads: "no future large transactions planned". Since from 2019 to present, they have acquired 2.3B in assets, and 1.2M acres, I am of the belief a Crew takeout that you are dreaming of, would be considered a "large transaction" and therefore, is not likely to happen. At least, according to their presentation, not in 2021 or 2022.
Therefore, I think we can all stop dreaming of a take out from TOU.
The Market Manipulation and subsequent Volatility is trying to create another wave of COVID fear, all in an effort to take some more of our $$$. This is my opinion anyway. I will not waver on my target price on what I feel represents good value for my Crew shares. I am closely lined with Oldnagger's thoughts.
I believe you have >1M shares, good for you & keep them for a bit & don't let them rattle & shake them away from you. I too hold a few, 550K, and I want to see this play out till LNG takeaway anyways.
However, 2020 is a very good reminder of what "can" happen (.14/share) but, I am quite optimistic that NG & Canadian Energy stocks are ready to build good steady momentum (super cycle???.....maybe)
It's my belief Dale is taking this Co. to the LNG finish line. If we see strip pricing stay solid for the next couple years, as I believe we will, and with production growth of ~40,000boepd, we can realize substantial debt reduction with FCF in 2022-2023. (I'd like to see debt less than $150M by time we are looking at Senior Note (2024).
Once we get there, I think we can all stop worrying about another CNRL "rakeover". And by that I don't mean incompetence from Dale and his team, by that I mean manipulative Bankers getting involved and weaseling us out of our investment.....
Anyway, my name ("PonyBoy" on account of my Painted Pony shares, and "Outsider", on account that I have really no O & G history, so feeling privileged to be here), I probably have no business even voicing my opinions, so reluctantly, I will still regard you as TGC on account you have more Crew shares than I. But I am very doubtful we will be seeing either a takeover or a rakeover any time soon.
Although, I was very surprised CNRL paid up a bit for Storm, not like them.....
We have some time boys! Time will tell......
GLTA
PonyBoy Outsider