US Natural Gas UsesWeather helps if you are hoping for those 300 bcf winter storage withdrawls but thats
only a smaller part of the NG picture now.
Storage is declining at a normal pace despite a very warm first half of autumn.
https://www.americanoilman.com/ Acording to the 5 yr gas storage history on the above site 800 bcf was withdrawn over a 3 week
period in Jan. 2018. I think that was the kind of scenario the market wll need to see to get
gas prices back up to the $6 range and above. Nobody knows if that will happen and it is still very early in the game. It would be nice for BIR but it is not necessary to justify a better price for the stock going forward.
The biggest thing that has changed in the last five years is the introduction of US LNG exports and exports of pipeline gas to Mexico. The US is poised to move into the numer one spot for LNG exports
with the latest (2) LNG facilites coming online now. Total US LNG gas demand should rise from 12 bcf to 14 bcf per day when they are fully commmisioned. Thats an extra 730 bcf/day of gas demand per year. Gas in storage is current around 3,500 BCF and I am thinking that we probably do not
need a extra cold winter to drain storage to low levels by spring. Also last spring saw cold well
intto May (even in Europe - and that is what is root of the problem they have now with high gas prices).
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/natural-gas/use-of-natural-gas.php Pipeline gas to Mexico is around 7-8 Bcf/day.
Mexico and LNG exports will total 22 bcf/day shortly
Total US dry gas production is around 90 Bcf/day
The US, Canada and even Mexico (west Coast) all have more LNG export facilities in he planning or construction phase.
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/natural-gas/use-of-natural-gas.php