RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Level 2 Looking at the Boards buy/sell activity might be useful, wouldn't net selling and no buying give the impression a TO isn't near term? If buying was to occur then we could speculate about it either being a vote of confidence or something brewing?
On the other hand 70M oz is such a gigantic number, I still have a hard time just getting over the shock value.
I was thinking about numbers this past week. Trying to somewhat check my own expectations and just see out of X number of years what could be the value created with an expanding resource.
First, what price, I say $100 CAD, if it's better we still win :) Also the subject of price is a HUGE one, just so many variables so I like to keep it simple.
Next how many more OZ can you assume going forward? Here at the moment that number for me isn't reliable enough. Once this year's drilling is added to the Resource then assumptions going forward might be a little less wide in end results. Now some expect a double even 50% more would be fantastic. I started with 10M oz.
But this is what 10M yearly looks like if you assume $100
10Moz X AMK 20% = 2Moz X $100 = $200,000,000 Potential value added to AMK
If you assume max dilution 10% a year in 3 years that means 200M is 600M with 1/3 loss to dilution so about $400M
Let's say 5 Years X 2Moz - 10M oz X $100 = $1,000,000,000
If you assume max dilution 10% a year in 5 years that means 1B is about 400M or again $1 TO assumed today would be around $.40 in 5 years and if resource was 3X to 15M then $1.20
Although this is a worse case scenario it's still open to be seen as to who will end up with this part and also keep in mind the best part about TC besides the gold is having 3 companies not only involved but 3 companies that are all tradable. Options are always great and TC is full of them.
As an example I see AMK needing to move up 50% to meet up with TUD but if you assume 3Y max dilution of 1/3 then retail is fully priced relative to TUD
Now let's spin this around a little as a reference. In 5Y 10M more oz let's call what we have now 5M oz this means 3X in ressources and if you're right about a doubling this year then you just cut 2.5 years from my numbers.
One other thing from this year's results is how the mineralized areas seem to be popping up like Friday nights Popcorn. I say this because my understanding a few years ago was that TUD had their foot to the floor so doubling drilling didn't seem possible but if this blows up in all directions I'm curious to see how TUD deals with the size and perhaps this could increase total drills used as they spread out? One thing is for sure with TUD is that they WANT MORE DRILLING! If we also start seeing drill rig counts increase that would be amazing for us and bad for anyone else needing Drills lol
Why so quiet Lackeys?