Is this really a SaaS play?Just looking through financials for the latest quarter.
License fees: $91,900
Professional Services: $24,016
Hardware: $406,767
So the closest to SaaS based revenue would be the license fee. That works out to under 18% of the total revenue. Extrapolate for the year (4x quarterly rev) and add a 100x multiple (very very very very generous)... and you end up with $40 Mill for valuation here.
Next up would be professional services revenue. Extrapolate for the year and add a 2x multiple and you end up with $200k here
Hardware, based on margins might have some value. But this is pretty much throwaway as there is no indication of margin here. At the most valuation here would be 1x earnings.. So even at a 10% margin and extrapolating for the year, this would put the valuation for this part of the business around $160k
In total, at a very generous valuation (consistent growth, management team performing, burn going down etc), this should be valued around $40 Mill. Based on performance of the last 2 years, and constant misses from guidance.. you probably end up around $10 Mill for valuation here. Currently the equity value is $240 Mill... or 6x from where it should be, if the team was executing flawlessly and 24x from where it probably should be..
PS I am neither long, nor short.