RE:SeekingAlpha article on TXP Lurk & Learns + Proselenes:
Sometimes the motivation of past, present & potential future owners/buyers of a stock are never aligned. As too are the (third party) "analysts" that we recently saw making predictions on future Price per share (PPS) metrics and more importantly the TIMING to attain their target pricing.
Point being that a "tout sheet" will normally give a target price, complete with the prerequisite events needed to take the PPS to their targets; but almost never the timing.
Unfortunately/fortunately, the O & G "analysts" are at a stage in the "cycle" where (as per recent BNN appearences e.g. Eric Nuttall) that Tier 1 (least risky) companies are where the easy money is being made.
By that I mean, companies that are ALREADY in the PRODUCTION stage of the exploration, development & production cycle (normally) accompanied by a POSITIVE cash flow (quarterly then anually) ) per share. i.e a proven track record.
So while some may be wondering why TXP is "trading the way that it is", it might be that a certain segment of the "investing" FRATERNITY will (apparently) play the news cycle...Case in point, starting in/on March 31st until the Dec 7th NR's, a plot of the PPS gyrations might be enlightening wrt to the motivations of the "players".
So the question is when can we expect things to change? In their CONCLUSION, the Seeking Alpha writer (based on their take away at PB's recent London presentation) put it in context for the private/individual PATIENT Touchstone investor:
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- The stock market reaction to the second test has provided a monumental buying opportunity for new investors.
- The importance of finding oil at Royston instead of gas has been totally overlooked.
- By July next year we could have 3 oil producers from Royston on stream, Cascadura on stream and the often discussed ‘wall of cash’ quote would come true.
- If we are really fortunate both Royston deep subthrust and Kraken could also be a discovery by then.
- Already discovered resources easily covers the current market cap and more, several fold upside through drilling comes on top.
- Any sort of share price target should be £3 to £10 on a two year view.
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BWDIK? In the spirit of the ...Twelve Days of Christmas, Seeking Alpha is suggesting that the twelth day of Christmas might not happen until (on or about) sometime in July 2022?? With Pork, Ham or Turkey or
Curried Goat for the Trini's.
GLTAL GLAP Caveat Emptor
Cheers
Stanley