Atkinsrealis Group Inc T.ATRL

Alternate Symbol(s): SNCAF

Industrials Conglomerates

Atkinsrealis Group Inc., formerly SNC-Lavalin Group Inc., is a professional services, and project management company. It delivers end-to-end services across the whole life cycle of an asset including consulting, and advisory and environmental services. Its segments include Engineering Services; Nuclear; O&M; Linxon; LSTK Projects, and Capital. The Engineering Services segment includes consultancy, engineering, design and project management services. The Nuclear segment supports clients across the entire nuclear lifecycle with the full spectrum of services from consultancy, EPCM services, field services, technology services, spare parts, reactor support and decommissioning and waste management. The O&M segment consists of providing operations, maintenance, and asset management solutions. The Linxon segment offers engineering, procurement, management, and construction services. The LSTK Projects is comprised of the remaining LSTK construction contracts of the Company.

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Atkinsrealis Group Inc > Volume très bas

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Comment by Gabrielon Dec 14, 2021 9:36pm

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Post# 34231292

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Volume très bas

Special dividend declared and paid December 10, 2021, totaling over 40m received this Q.

https://www.407etr.com/en/highway/news/news-release/2021/news-release2021-12-10.html

Q3 2019 (oct 2019): Dividends = 0.323$
Q4 2019 (Feb 2020): Dividends = 0.403$
Q1 2020 (April 2020): 0$
Q2 2020 (July 2020): 0$
Q3 2020 (Oct 2020): 0$
Q4 2020 (Feb 2020): 0$
Q1 2021 (April 2021): 0$
Q2 2021 (July 2021): 0$
Q3 2021 (Oct 2021) declared and payable October 27, 2021 : 0.387$

https://www.407etr.com/en/highway/news/news-release/2021/news-release2021-10-27.html

Special dividend declared and payable December 10, 2021: 0.387$ (44 days after previous).

https://www.407etr.com/en/highway/news/news-release/2021/news-release2021-12-10.html

For number of shares, see item 10 of last statements, 775m shares in total

https://407etr.com/documents/major-financial-filings/Q3%202021%20-%20Interim%20Condensed%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements%20Sept%2030%202021.pdf

SNC has 6.76% or 52.4m shares.

https://www.snclavalin.com/en/media/press-releases/2019/15-08-2019

So we received over 40m dividends this quarter (0.387 * 2 * 52.4m shares).

Post-COVID: With lower borrowing cost and additional lanes opened late 2019, expect 0.45-0.48$ per Q or ~ 100m/year.

https://www.407etr.com/en/highway/news/news-release/2019/news-release2019-09-23.html

Revenue from tolls has been increasing 7% per annum since the signing of the concession. Inflation has been 2%, so the net ex-inflation return in real dollars is about 5%.

Assume that for the remaining 76 years, the real dollar fare revenue increase, net of inflation, is only 2% accounting for the increase in population in the GTA, and the increase of the congestion on the alternative 401 and more diverted traffic to the 407, since they all combine.

Revenue in 2022 = 0.43 $/share/Q * 4Q/year * 52.4m shares = 90m CAD

Net Present Value (NPV) = 90 + 90*(1.02) + ... 90*(1.02)^75 = 15.7B theoretical value of our stake in the 407 assuming same net growth (90$ per SNC share minus taxes, risk for lower growth, ..). So 15$ per share is really conservative.

Note the 2% is already discounting inflation.

NPV = 90 + 90(1.02) + .. 90(1.02)^75
(1.02) NPV = 90(1.02) + ... 90(1.02)^76

Substracting both equalities results in 0.02 NPV = 90(1.02)^76-90
NPV = 90 ( 1.02^76-1)/0.02 = 15.7B