Gabriel wrote:
Special dividend declared and paid December 10, 2021, totaling over 40m received this Q.
https://www.407etr.com/en/highway/news/news-release/2021/news-release2021-12-10.html
Q3 2019 (oct 2019): Dividends = 0.323$
Q4 2019 (Feb 2020): Dividends = 0.403$
Q1 2020 (April 2020): 0$
Q2 2020 (July 2020): 0$
Q3 2020 (Oct 2020): 0$
Q4 2020 (Feb 2020): 0$
Q1 2021 (April 2021): 0$
Q2 2021 (July 2021): 0$
Q3 2021 (Oct 2021) declared and payable October 27, 2021 : 0.387$
https://www.407etr.com/en/highway/news/news-release/2021/news-release2021-10-27.html
Special dividend declared and payable December 10, 2021: 0.387$ (44 days after previous).
https://www.407etr.com/en/highway/news/news-release/2021/news-release2021-12-10.html
For number of shares, see item 10 of last statements, 775m shares in total
https://407etr.com/documents/major-financial-filings/Q3%202021%20-%20Interim%20Condensed%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements%20Sept%2030%202021.pdf
SNC has 6.76% or 52.4m shares.
https://www.snclavalin.com/en/media/press-releases/2019/15-08-2019
So we received over 40m dividends this quarter (0.387 * 2 * 52.4m shares).
Post-COVID: With lower borrowing cost and additional lanes opened late 2019, expect 0.45-0.48$ per Q or ~ 100m/year.
https://www.407etr.com/en/highway/news/news-release/2019/news-release2019-09-23.html
Revenue from tolls has been increasing 7% per annum since the signing of the concession. Inflation has been 2%, so the net ex-inflation return in real dollars is about 5%.
Assume that for the remaining 76 years, the real dollar fare revenue increase, net of inflation, is only 2% accounting for the increase in population in the GTA, and the increase of the congestion on the alternative 401 and more diverted traffic to the 407, since they all combine.
Revenue in 2022 = 0.43 $/share/Q * 4Q/year * 52.4m shares = 90m CAD
Net Present Value (NPV) = 90 + 90*(1.02) + ... 90*(1.02)^75 = 15.7B theoretical value of our stake in the 407 assuming same net growth (90$ per SNC share minus taxes, risk for lower growth, ..). So 15$ per share is really conservative.
Note the 2% is already discounting inflation.
NPV = 90 + 90(1.02) + .. 90(1.02)^75
(1.02) NPV = 90(1.02) + ... 90(1.02)^76
Substracting both equalities results in 0.02 NPV = 90(1.02)^76-90
NPV = 90 ( 1.02^76-1)/0.02 = 15.7B