Tradeahead Actually I am not ignoring that the 5.3g/t is an underground resource. And I am not ignoring the possibility that the 1.83g/t may be stated ex. recovery as I SPECIFICALLY stated in my message to you earlier today where I wrote: "(Unclear if this actual production figure has been reverse-adjusted for recovery, I do not know, if so it would be 100Koz instead. That would still be inline)"
Now the problem is that you are always looking for the most dark and pessimistic outlook on every situation. It it like listening to the Chicken Little character from the kids tale, always imagining the worst.
You would like to believe that:
A) NVO will mine the minimum from the oxide.
AND
B) NVO will mine the minimum from fresh.
AND
C) NVO will not learn and improve grades from its initial test package of fresh mined.
AND
D) NVO will NOT get a contribution from ore sorting concentrate
AND
E) NVO will NOT get Genie fast tracked as we have been told could be done in H1 already
AND
F) NVO will NOT get Parnell results, provided economic into fast tracked production
AND
G) NVO will NOT get better at mining more accurately over time.
AND
H) NVO will NOT benefit from the expected gold price/bull market continuation which will elevate its economics dramatically.
AND
I) NVO will NOT revise its mine plan or production forecast to the better before the coming 12 months are over and done with.
AND
J) Mike S. forecast of +100Koz for 2022 will not happen, as you know this better than management.
That is a VERY, VERY BLEAK VIEW. I simply think it is bonkers to be so negative, to the point of it being almost morally objectionable.
In fact I consider it HIGHLY unrealistic to achieve the relatively more negative outcome imaginable everywhere, and all of the time. Outcomes are more evenly distributed between the lower and higher bound in reality, than you would like to believe due to your anti-NVO bias.
I will make you a bet: 10 months from now NVO will trade dramatically higher, because of events surplus to your viewpoint stated here of what is going to transpire. That is, due to a positive SURPRISE, whatever its nature!