RE:RE:What is (or may be) changing over the next 2 -3 weeks ?Domino55 wrote: MM: I know that tax loss selling is an annual and unique
holiday ritual with Spectral, but not all late stage P3 companies dress themselves up as failures. This years extra special feature is we hit tax loss time at all time lows and now 2% of NPV after losing 65% of market cap over a special 6 month period of devaluation. All this while the company celebrates(quietly) a trial surpassing expectations.
if you had to pick a quarter for them to start trying to fairly value our company what would you chose? Would it be next year?
If you are aking me when we might begin to reflect fair value, I would pick the Qtr in which a deal is announced to sell the whole enchilada. Perhaps just PMX/EAA but also possibly Dialco as well (although it could still be separated to keep DaV in the running)
If you are asking me when the SP might start to appreciate again...I would say Q1
If you are asking me when there will/should be alot more upward pressure based on enrollment creeping up (and a continuation of exceeding expectations), I would say Q2 or Q3.* This should happen regardless of the effort put in to create any market buzz (historically pathetic)
In Q3 /Q4 the statisticians and the Open Label nature of the Trial, and the FDA itself, could mean the Co. will have a hard time keeping the lid on what might be the inevitable conclusion for Tigris (i.e the probability of success can no longer be supressed.). Of course, B, at that time, will tip its hand as well, in order to maintain the ROFR. Or perhaps they go even one step further.
* subject to Omicron, which I expect will cause a short-lived burst in ICU activity in H1 2022. likely 1-2 million cases per day in the US by end of Jan. It's a monster of transmisbibility but very likely far less deadly, nevertheless ST pressure on ICUs will be extensive given 100Million unvaccinated in the US.