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AltaGas Ltd T.ALA

Alternate Symbol(s):  ATGFF | T.ALA.PR.A | ATGPF | T.ALA.PR.B | T.ALA.PR.G | ATGAF

AltaGas Ltd. is a Canada-based energy infrastructure company that connects natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) to domestic and global markets. The Company’s segments include Utilities and Midstream. Its Utilities segment owns and operates franchised, rate-regulated natural gas distribution and storage utilities, which includes four utilities that operate across five United States jurisdictions. It Utilities segment also includes storage facilities and contracts for interstate natural gas transportation and storage services, as well as the affiliated retail energy marketing business. Its Midstream segment includes global exports, which includes its two LPG export terminals; natural gas gathering and extraction, and fractionation and liquids handling. Its Midstream segment also consists of natural gas and NGL marketing business, domestic logistics, trucking and rail terminals, and liquid storage capability. Its subsidiaries include Wrangler 1 LLC, WGL Holdings, Inc. and others.


TSX:ALA - Post by User

Post by MyLaughingStockon Dec 16, 2021 9:47am
358 Views
Post# 34236332

Investor Day Takeaways: Pivot to Offense from Defense

Investor Day Takeaways: Pivot to Offense from DefenseOUR TAKE: Positive. AltaGas' first Investor Day in numerous years highlighted to us that the company is no longer a turnaround story, but is on strong financial footing and should generate strong growth. Our 2022/2023 EPS estimates increase by 12%/9% to reflect a stronger than expected growth outlook that drives our target to $30 from $29. The rate base of its utilities is expected to grow 8-10%, which would be above its peers. Also, we were previously not giving its Midstream business enough credit for the strong outlook for volumes. The 6% dividend increase announced earlier in December plus the new 5-7% dividend CAGR out to 2026 is supported by a long term stable growth outlook. We believe AltaGas' shares are not properly reflecting the value of its utility assets. At 10.8% 2022E free cash flow yield, AltaGas is trading like a midstream company (its peers are trading at an average of 10.5%). At 13.8x 2022E P/ E, we view AltaGas as a way for investors to get exposure to high-growth utility assets at a discounted valuation (the other Canadian utilities are trading in the 18x-21x range). AltaGas remains our favourite utility name. KEY POINTS Utility growth + Midstream Optimization = Top Tier Growth. The 2022 utility outlook was largely as expected. That said, the 8-10% rate base CAGR to 2026 was ahead of our expectations and would be above its Canadian peers. The Midstream growth outlook was much stronger than expected with 2022 benefitting from 8% Global Export volume growth, NEBC liquids being ~25% higher, and 5% higher fractionation / processing volumes. We increase our Midstream estimate to reflect the higher volume outlook, which brings our overall EBITDA estimate towards the mid-point of the guidance range. Our 2023E Midstream outlook also increases. Our EPS estimates increase higher than our EBITDA estimates to reflect operating leverage as well as lower taxes. That said, we remain towards the lower end of the EPS guidance range. The net result is that we see 3% EPS growth in 2022, which is a good outcome as 2021 had a number of one time benefits. In 2023, we see EPS growth of 8%, which would be stronger than its peer group. Strong funding outlook. We see AltaGas funding the vast majority of its 2022 capital plan of $995m with retained cash flow. In fact, we only see $50m of incremental debt being used, which keeps 2022E debt-to-EBITDA at 5.2x and slightly ahead of its 5.0x target (or 5.6x including hybrids and prefs). The company noted that if the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) is sold it would bring down its leverage to below 5.0x. We assume if MVP is sold for $0.6b it would bring down debt to EBITDA by ~0.2x.
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