RE:RE:Well Surprising
My odds-on bet would be the entire ownership of OT goes private before A) significant cashflow begins to flow from Hugo North and HNE, and/or B) There is a major exploration campaign re-initiated over the JV lands at OT.
However, the latter may be a real dilemma for Rio and TRQ - if they have probable drilling targets in mind, can theymake a going-private bid for the minority shares of TRQ and/or ETG with sufficient disclosure to prevent later claims of fraud and misrepresentation?
No idea. The best outcome would be get some exploration going, locate a valuable shallow high grade ore body that pumps the value for eveybody, and make us an offer we can't refuse.
TRQ has Pentwater in its minority, ETG has Sandstorm. Both are much bigger and imortant players, if they lock-in and lock-up in an agreed sell-out, then it will game over at their negotiated price.
The factor that probably accellerates the urgency for Rio Tinto and the Mongolians is the probable or possible trajectory of gold and copper prices. Many people (me too) believe that the charts and the global conditions suggest both PM's and base metals supporting clean energy conversions will move those metalsprices higher in the years to come. Given the uncertainty being created by these pulses of Covid, the confusion of inflation vs shiupping and production bottlenecks, we'll just have to wait and see.
My own $$$ are betting on copper and gold, and ETG has leverage, major leverage to both, with significant political and structure risks related to the OT ownership structure. Fair value for the metals resources at this stage of development, if OT was located in a more secure juristdiction, would surely be much much higher ....
But your own appetite for risk is a major consideration for sure.
cg