December 16, 2021
Forest Products
US housing starts: Well above expectations
Impact
Positive: November housing starts were above expectations – The US Census Bureau released new residential construction statistics for November. Housing starts were above expectations at 1,679k SAAR vs. consensus at 1,570k SAAR, while housing permits were above expectations at 1,712k SAAR (vs. consensus at 1,660k). Single-family starts of 1,173k were up 3.6% m/m while multi-family starts of 491k were up 12.1% m/m. Homebuilder confidence increased +1 points m/m to 84, which is the fourth consecutive increase and tied with February for highest level of the year.
Highlights
November US housing starts of 1,679k (SAAR) were well above consensus at 1,570k SAAR – Total starts were up 8.3% y/y and up 11.8% m/m from the revised October figure of 1,502k (revised lower from 1,520k SAAR). On a regional basis, the South represented 56% of total starts vs. 25% in the West, 12% in the Midwest and 8% in the Northeast. On a y/y basis, starts in the South were up 15.8% y/y, while the West was down 0.2% y/y. The Midwest was up 7.9% y/y, while the Northeast was down 9.1% y/ y. For November, single-family starts represented 69.9% of total starts (vs. 71.8% in 2020 and 68.8% in 2019). The slightly lower proportion of single-family new residential construction is significant since single-family housing starts typically consume 3x the amount of wood products vs. multi-family starts.
US housing permits of 1,712k (SAAR) were above consensus at 1,660k SAAR – Total permits were up 0.9% y/y and up 3.6% m/m against the October figure of 1,653k (revised higher from 1,650k SAAR). Single-family permits of 1,103k were down 4.5% y/y but up 2.7% m/m, while multi-family permits of 609k were up 12.6% y/y and up 5.2% m/m. Single-family permits represented 64.4% .
Building Material sales increased 9.3% y/y in November – According to the US Census Bureau, category advance retail sales were up 0.7% m/m to $40.6 billion in November. Relative to 2019 levels, sales are up 29.6%. Yesterday, Lowe's also provided its 2022 outlook; for more details, please click here.
Canadian housing starts trend upwards – According to the CMHC, Canadian seasonally adjusted housing starts were up 26.4% m/m in November to 301.3k units (SAAR), higher than a year ago when housing starts were 262.0k (SAAR). The November figure was 23.0% above consensus estimates as starts were higher m/m in 7 of 10 provinces. In urban centers, single-family starts decreased 1.2% m/m, while multi-family starts were up 40.5% m/m.