RE:RE:RE:RE:At least give us news about no news ...Least we forget, their newest invstor is now on the shareholder's side of any offering dilution and given how large THTX is in their fund, they may not want to increase it either and would be diluted. So they are also likely now on the anti-dilution side of the equation along with many here, with a share price expectation similar to ours --ATM in $7-10 range hopefully if at all.
I would still rather see it run and a proper underwritten offer in the $100-150mil range is done post 1b results with at least one large firm in the lead and 3-5 other solid names in there. Solves so many issues --balance sheet, NASH, analyst coverage, liquidity, share price.... If the share is over the convert exercise price, do $100mil and if not, do the $150mil. I think all of this could wait for the 1b results and discussions with FDA on best way forward for Phase 2 --obviously assuming decent efficacy. The reason is that a decision-tree around oncology at that point will be tricky and have to balance the unmet need, the best tumor responses seen and the balance sheet. Not until that point can they really know how large Phase 2 could be, how many tumors to put in to this trial, if BTD and AA are in the cards, etc.. At that point, it will all be so much clearer for them and quite possible it they decide to run 4 tumors in parallel given results and FDA view, they should. But each may need $20mil. But NASH on top and maybe you raise $200mil, but you're doing it with very good scientific rationale that should be highly supportive of the share price and limit dilution. You'd have a compelling case to be made if you go for 2/3/4 in Phase 2 on good results and that kind of offering roadshow would be a slam dunk and finally get them a broader investment base and high quality analyst coverage. It would be off to the races in my view. I'd take that over the small ATM, which looks to me like a backup plan if they can't do something bigger post 1b.
The pushback would be it pushes NASH commencement back another 6 months maybe. I'm ok with that as at that point, SORT1+ is the behemoth that will allow THTX to take the companies many ways in the future and NASH can fit in as a blip, not a make-it-or-break-it program.
palinc2000 wrote: I am not predicting an Offering at current prices,,,I was 100% certain that they would have drawn on the ATM during the Fall before clinical results based on the assumptions that that the SP would have increased in anticipation of results,,Since we have seen no such rise in the SP doing an Offering now makes no sense ....not much built in the SP for Phase 1 imo
SPCEO1 wrote: I suspect you are correct about the window now being closed for the remainder of 2021, unless of course they do something, like sign a partnership deal before year-end as they would have to disclose that. Yesterday the CFO assured me they would announce whatever they can as soon as they can, but on the cancer front at least, it sure seems like it will be January before we hear anything. I don't see why they could not give us an update on where things stand but companies prefer to hold info tight to their vest until they have all of the data and can put the most positive spin on it. If they shared something before all the data was in, they may inadvertently highlight a flaw that they could otherwise hide.
I cannot see how an offering would be done before cancer news is out. If they try that, it will not be an encouraging sign for cancer and the stock would likely tank. The prospects for cancer is what is holding the stock up and if they send a signal that they don't have anything in cancer by doing an offering prior to phase 1a results, the market will assume those results are not good.
palinc2000 wrote: The window for good news is probably closed by now,,,,They are doing a lot of housekeeping in preparation for an Offering ......hopefully not in 2021