Simplified antiviral NVPThe antiviral Remdesivir is used for SARS-CoV-2-virus treatment.
The market forecast was USD 2.55 billion for 2021 with a CAGR of 28 percent resulting in the forecast of USD 6.89 billion in 2025. Sales of Veklury (also known as Remdesivir) were USD 1.9 billion during the third quarter, thereby exceeded the anlysts expectation of USD 631 million.
Let's assume that Remdesivir represent 100 percent of the antiviral market for SARS-CoV-2-virus treatment. The annualy market would be 4 x USD 1.9 billion = USD 7.6 billion.
Base case parameters:
Discount Rate 15 percent
Sales Cost 50 percent
Royalty 10 percent
Tax 35 percent
CAGR 28 percent
Up-front USD 500 million
15 year of sales - peak of 14 percent (year 7/8/9)
USD/CAD is 1.29
NVP is 5.35 CAD per share. The in vitro results will be extremely interesting. A positive outcome and news spread beyond the current SBM-investor pond might have a significant impact.