RE:NGU Thanks for the note; I think you are the best guy to Rock, I just use simple, 'take a step back' type of estimates that are easy enough for anyone to put in their own 'assumptions' or 'if' statements
1) choose a time frame you want to look at for both the cost of production (all in cost) that you want to use and a sell price assumption that you want to use thus
2) (By way of example only) I choose a 5 to 10 year average of $4.75 copper (in today's money) and I choose a $2.00 long term cost to produce (above the company estimate of $1.86)
3) I apply this to average long term underground production and then, separately, apply it to various scenarios for the future open pit portion.
4.) when it comes to the open pit I use a higher multiple than for the underground because the scale of opperation would be much bigger and would likely involve opperators who have more credibility than the current group.
5.) Take 5,000 tpd underground (which will, over time, track up to about 6,500 tpd form probably 2,000 tpd soon, with the same mill and hoist) and get about 60 million pounds per year from underground. That gives you $165 million per annum from underground (long term average) which when multiplied by only a 5 X for the current team is only $825 million to then be divided by shares out (call it 450 million) which gives you $1.83 per share.
6) Add to that whatever you think the open pit project and all the surrounding property is worth. The open pit will eventually ramp to about 220 million pounds per year at about the same cost per pound. That cost per pound DOES include the cost to both finance and build the mine. So 220 milloin pounds x $2.75 cash flow) = $605 million per year X an 8 multiple = $4.8 billion and them (JUST BECAUSE) divide that number by double the current shares out and get an extra $5.37per share.
7) add the two together and get $183 + $5,37 and get a value (today) of $7.20 per share.
8 ) change all the above assumption to whatever the F you want and then get anywhere fro $0000000 to $ ??? $15.00 per share.
Don't blame me for your descisions: good luck and
Cheers,
N
rockhound3 wrote: know the potential earnings = although it would be a "guesstimate".
I think it is important to look both at the possible earniings then applying a range of multiples ( being used in the market place)
In addition there is this very large land holding which no one seems to be talking about? Wonder why?
The south american elections + climate change + the EV revolution should all result in a large possible/likely increase in the price of copper. The mine is coming on line - albeit slowly as the young men in ZUG thought they could do it on the cheap.
In addition Vlad isnt going to sell at a loss!!!
And do we think that Vlad would want to take the same price as the Retail investors ?? Thus the probability of shananigans (sp) are higher than ONE would normally expect.
The young inexperienced men in ZUG are probably shaking their heads saying they dont understand why the NCU stock isnt going up like one of the Rockets that the real smart guys are sending up.??!
They dont seem to understand that "expectation/history/ trust / / competence" are all wrapped up and until this negative aspect is removed then NCU is going to have a difficult time moving up.
If Vlad puts the company up for sale with an honest process I strongly suspect that Vlad would get all his money back +++, however, that would mean that he has to share that share increase with the retail shareholders ( who have been treated by PALA as sheep to be sheered/ and legs to be roasted).
As I have pointed out it is very clear that PALA is trying to scrape the smell off their reputation and the attempt to "rebrand" PALA by lifting pages out of a couple of text books which is too obvious!
The one thing that VLAD doesnt seem to understand or want to understand is that conning money from western retail investors isnt the same as scamming the Russian people!
Very interesting times= but if you have a possibility of enjoying any increase in NCU stock
= GET VACCINATED AND SOON
ROCK