RED LAKE - BATTLE FOR HIGH GRADE GOLD Who'd ever thought that GBR would see such an early takeout -
No mineral resource calculated and astonishingly -came with a very handsome - @29/sh value.
More importantly,
what did Evolution think ?
Were they surprized ?
Caught off guard ?
Did they also have eyes on the GBR gold ounces ?
Could we precieve this as a - battle for the Red Lake Gold ?
After all, there's several big players still moving about Red Lake making their presence known.
If a shareholder were to sift Evolutions forward outlook plans - could they decipher what Evolutions nexts move might be applied to - acquiring more gold ounces ?
I would hazzard the guess and say.... all depends on one's magic wand - lol.
What would increase one's odds to know all one can about Evolution mining would be to probe their recent ( OCT 30 2021 REPORT ) 10 YEARS OF EVOLUTION.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwivu7zN3fT0AhU4CZ0JHYJ6A9kQFnoECCgQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fevolutionmining.com.au%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2021%2F10%2F2021-Evolution-Annual-Mining-Report.pdf&usg=AOvVaw2dQ9OeeOh07rKbjzF3d-7Y
INSIDE THIS ( EVOLUTION ) REPORT IS VALUABLE INFORMATION.
- resource sizes
- reserve sizes
- what's spent on green exploration and other.
- where they're drilling around red lake for more expansion
- what they earn
- how much they spend / explore / operation / management
Which begs.....
Could their 30% interest in RLG be a blessing or incumbrence ?
Why say this ?
Simply put - no added help from the major while the small junior is left to build the resource a
Could this 30 % ownership -
be precieved as, 30% claw with a notion of no worries, not going anywhere, while Evolution spends efforts elsewhere building gold ounces ?
Or.... is there a remote chance there are others that are eyeing up West Red Lake's Gold and wanting to bolster their reserves ?
Could the recent GBR surpize takeout -
Make Evolution rethink their plans ?
Evolution is sitting with an approx - 14 million ounces ( reserves + resource ) combined.
( Red Lake Mines )
Is it enough ?
Have toask - especially when one is pumpng out over 300,000 ounces a yr.
No one really knows what size of resource GBR amassed, and, i'm sure there are a few out there that kept tabs on the drill results and plotted their own 3D model to make that guessitmate.
With a sold tag - $1.8 billion for GBR,
could one hazzard a guess basing gold ounces sold for $200 - $250 / ounce ?
$200/ounce = 9,000,000 ounces
$250/ounce = 7,200,000 ounces
Again, rough estimates using the typical gold ounce sell values based on other transactions
in the gold sector.
From another stance -
delineating 300,000 ounces from a resourcer and reserve can also place Evolution on a declining value - hence - a goldproducer is in a constant battle to add all the more ounces with each mined and removed ounce of gold.
What if spot gold took off in the new year ( 2022 ) and RLG was repriced ?
How would Evolution precieve trhis ?
In conjunction - should RLG hold off a few months, for thier next raise ?
If gold does run, there's always a what if, RLG's valuation also rose, they'd expend all the less shares - right ?
The real question becomes -
just how valuable are RLG's gold ounces now that GBR has been takenout ?
Could there be another lurking on the sidelines - eyeing up RLG ?
I guess anything's possible.
30% tether ?
30% vantage ?
30% another eueying up ?
Are there any other suitors who would love a high grade resource
1.1 million ounces over 7 grams a ton.
1.3 million ounces if cut off is tweaked.
And... all those new drill holes on the NT zone.
Yet another zone aside of thier core ore body with imprssssive intercepts.
I would think,
the best move RLG could ever make is....
Not banking on anotherwith a 30% dibs - but rather - revamping their 43 101 resource
and spitting out a new resource size - new blocking model, and if applicable, sifting their core logs for additional minerals that may reconstruct this present deposit with a potential open pit model... It would place them at a vantage of, attracting other potentials seeking more gold ounces. There are very few locations in Canada that can chirn out - high grade gold over 7 grams a tonne.
MY BEST ESTIMATION -
points to, the best moves a shareholder could see at present are....
- New 43 101 resource size
- potential new blocking model with lower cut off
- revsmp new mining model to open pit - if at all feasible.
These are shareholderfriendly moves.
All other, even including more drilling would favor a major over shareholders.
Just my own opinion.
Cheers....