Buying today
Well I filled a limit buy order at $ US $1.30 and another at US $ 1.25. I have another bid in at US $ 1.20. I am going to follow my plan of buying as able as long as TXP share price below US $ 2.00, AS LONG AS STORY IS INTACT. We are very early in this story. And it is still intact. Here are some of the pieces.
1. Legacy production will increase toward 2000 bopd with improved netbacks. (possible bonus - will they find something in deep test of Hererra at Coora?).
2. Coho on line soon at 1300 bepd with good margins, guaranteed price, and could increase to 2600 boed with one Coho development well which is scheduled.
3. Cascadurs 1-ST and Casca Deep come on-line 3rd quarter at 9500 boed and can easily ramp to 20,000 boed in another year. Plus there are profitable liquids there which will be trucked initially but eventually connect by pipeline.
4. Royston 1 sales from prolonged production test very quickly. (a few hundred bopd). Royston Deep will be drilled end of January to fully test intermediate and subthrust and will go into production immediately when finished. (my guess 500-1000 bopd). Royston development plan then will be worked on. That will include a number of Royston wells over a number of years. Royston field could produce 5000 to 10,000 bopd eventually. Oil pipeline (TXP responsibility to build connection) is very close.
5. Krakken to be drilled first half of 2022. HUGE possibilities though exploratory at this point. If a discovery can be produced through same oil pipeline as Royston.
6. Steelhead exploratory well (just south of Royston) planned for 2022.
7.. Guabine exploratory well (south of Cascaddura and Chinook) planned for 2022. That will be on route of Cascadura liquids pipeline running to south. If gas is found NGC will build pipeline extension. If oil is found, it will improve economics of cascadura field liquids transportation.
8. At some undefined point they will drill one or two up dip Chinook wells. If commercial, oil production will be easy with aforementioned Cascadura liquids line going right by Chinook.
9. Then there is Bass and also another 15 exploration prospects less fully defined.
10. They could produce shallow Cruse natural gas at Chinook since they have will have the Cascadura gas line nearby.
11. Maybe they add some adjacent acres in next bid round. Don't have to as they have 5-10 years of work for two rig drilling program already in play.
12. They become a much bigger producer in 2022 and 2023. Maybe they pay a dividend by end of 2023.
Anyway we are early in this story. ALL of this is still in play. And it does not all have to happen. Because Cascadura alone is worth twice current market cap. Not everyone will agree with me of course, but tell me which parts of this list are proven impossible at this point in time.