MigraineCall wrote: From my perch, I am concerned, as China is making preparations, but I feel China is not yet fully ready and prepared to atttack Taiwan.
I'm far from an expert in these matters, but I can share thoughts as to what I have seen, read, experienced, and heard.
I live in Northern Thailand, and the evil empire of China is a mere couple hours away from our northern border crossing through Myanmar, and along the new high tech Chinese high speed rail system through the third world of Laos. Usable if it were open due to Covid border closures)
Chinese tourists were here in Thailand like a horrible plague of locusts before Covid. Many get only a few holiday days allowed a year, and often the vacations were paid by the employer. These tour packages used a Chinese airline, Chinese busses, Chinese hotels, eating at Chinese restaurants and taken to Chinese souvenir shops. Hardly any money stayed in Thailand, but Thais were always proud, boasting of the high tourist numbers.
Now, thanks to the wonderful blessing of the Chinese virus, the sidewalks are clear, and one can go eat at a nice buffet without using your elbows like a defenceman. Thankfully, China is so paranoid about Covid, they have not allowed their people to travel outside of China and return home easily, if at all. Flights are suspended, they restricted nearly all passport renewals, and react with an instant lockdown with their zero covid tolerance policy. This is also a factor when considering invading Taiwan now, as it would bring Covid back and infect Mainland China.
China is an unchallenged bully, that doesn't care about the implications of throwing its weight around, as long as it fits within their plans while they play out their long game. We learned a lot about China by Meng Wanzhou and the detention and treatment of the 2 Michaels. How they pushed and played Canada and Australia with bans on products. They play by different rules, where humanity, and consideration of others in their actions carries little value or weight.
In addition to major water diversion projects, they have built 11 dams on the Mekong in every feasible place in China, and are planning more in Laos. This already severely impacts the largest fresh water fishery in the world for those living downstream in Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam, that rely on the Mekong's annual natural ebbs and floods to provide fish habitat, and to deposit nutrient rich sediments for the delta crops that feed millions. Although we have had an abnormally wet season in the Mekong basin, water levels have been drastically down, yet they outright deny they are responsible. Millions are affected.
Chinese have given 'loans' for Belt and Road projects to countries that are ill suited to be debtors, (especially with corruptable dictatorships) and build them with Chinese workers, and then reposess them when they can't pay.
These projects are the expanding far reaching tentacles of China, spreading like cancer throughout Asia and the globe. The purpose is to feed nutrients to the monster in the form of raw materials and deliver exports, but like under the guise of Hitler's Autobahn for the people, they provide great transportation logistics, but are also convenient for the quick movement of military equilpment. Some ports are located in questionable places without good rail or road access, but would clearly function well as future strategic naval ports.
They have claimed and built bases and airstrips on tiny islands in international waters in the South China Sea, and pushed out other ASEAN members from access. Western naval ships including one from Canada have to sail occaisionally through the Taiwan straights to enforce international freedom of navigation rights. China vehemently opposes this and views it as a provocations due to their perceived ownership of Taiwan and the waters in between.
Their intentions and ambitions to take over Taiwan are clear and even reiterated in Xi's recent speeches, as they consider Taiwan to be part of China. This perspective is different from the Western view, that Taiwan is a separate democratic country. The history goes back to when Chiang Kai Shek and his army lost mainland China to Mao, and they all fled to Taiwan to set up shop. Safe from the mainland, Taiwan grew up as a democracy, and flourished. Xi wants it back.
Taiwan has for generations been a democracy, and a fine one at that. The overwhelming majority of the people want to be left alone with the status quo, and do not want to be forcefully taken by China. They witnessed what happened to the people of Hong Kong, with the promises of continued freedom, but are now enslaved as the flame of democracy is now becoming a flicker.
Today, among many exports, Taiwan is a very important producer of semiconductors for the west and the world, and it's technology is about 4 years advanced and ahead of the Chinese. There are a tremendous amount of foreign assets and factories there that would be lost, in addition to cutting off western supply chains.
If they attacked Taiwan, even if successful, the repercussions would be devastating for China. The resulting sanctions such as those being planned for Russia like the inability to use SWIFT would be so far reaching it would prevent funds transfers for the imports of materials and energy, and prevent the receipt of funds from their exports. Sure, they can barter with Iran as they now do for Iran's oil, but they could kiss most of the global economy goodbye.
The present fragile Chinese fiscal situation along with a high housing debt load could collapse, as a result, and the CCP losing it's grip on power. They risk losing control if the population is faced with a failing state, economic depression, and severe shortages and hardships. Unlike the masses of starving peasants led by Mao, the Chinese of today have had a good taste of what real life is, are worldly and knowledgeable, and condone and support the present authoritarian regime only if the good life continues, as there is no present need for change. I think that under tough conditions, it would not hold together well as a police state, and I do not think they would want to risk it all at this time. The demographics are another imminent headwind, as a lot of people are going to retire and leave the workforce, while the population is shrinking, leaving less working people to support an increasing elderly population with health care etc. This is the opposite of the rising populations of India or Africa, our newest oil consumers whose increasing demands for energy will save our global oil industry.
Strategic factors:
China provokes and probes Taiwan's defenses very often with random air sorties into Taiwan's airspace with sometimes several dozen fighter bomber aircraft, and performs nearby naval landing and attack exercises as they flex their muscles. This is more than just intimidation, it tests how Taiwan would react, showing their defensive capabilities.
They outnumber and outgun the Taiwan military several fold, yet success is not a slam dunk. Like the 'island' of England during WW2, there is a big anti tank ditch to cross, along with a massive barrage of missles, Taiwanese aircraft, and a very exposed amphibious assault where losses would be very high. Several scenarios on how an attack will be carried out can be seen online, and the first casualties would likely be those poor Taiwanese soldiers manning those many islands uncomfortably close to the Chinese coastline. Taking Taiwan without destroying what makes it valuable would be difficult, require many boots on the ground, a resisting population, and bloody.
According to those expats that I know that lived in China and others, the Chinese navy is no match for the power and might of the US. It is important that China remain uncertain that perhaps the west would not sit idly by, and come to the defense of Taiwan and possibly expand the conflict.
Amongst the rhetoric, posturing, and the muscle flexing from both sides, there is a fine balance. This should continue, as neither side wants to fire the first shot. Taiwan doesn't want to shoot first during a provocation and give China an excuse to invade, and China does not want to shoot first and suffer the consequences of crippling sanctions and world opinion. When you add it all up, China knows that the costs of a Taiwan conflict are far higher than the treasure to be gained.
Crimea:
Crimea is not comparable to the present Ukraine situation. It had an overwhelming ethnic pro Russian population, was for the most part supportive of the annexation, and the 2014 Ukraine revolution offered Putin an opportunity in the chaos. He saw his chance, and took it. There appeared to be little opposition or consequence up front, and the gains of potentially trillions of dollars of associated oil and gas acerage in the Black Sea. Yet, it was not free. Russia was kicked out of the G8, and quickly felt the economic impacts and collapse of the rubel due to sanctions. Many of his buddies lost many millions in the aftermath. The annexation is still contested by most of the world today, and Putin has learned a lot from it.
Again with sanctions, the loss of the SWIFT system to sell oil and gas, along with billions in foreign assets being frozen would make life quite tough for Russia if they attacked Ukraine. Without popular support, and 2014 revolution rejecting the pro Russian government it would be an occupation, and a costly drain on Russia's finances being locked out of the world economies, as well as to tank the rube causing steep inflation as it was in 2014. Also, unlike Crimea, there is very little oil in Ukraine to go after to exploit.
On the other hand, we must also recognize Putin's brilliant strategy in building gas pipelines to Europe, with the ability and power to cut off the flow during an energy crises and a cold winter. This allows him a lot more leeway to do be cocky. Presently, he says he doesn't want NATO or western involved in the Ukraine, or missiles pointed at him from there, so from the posturing and military placements, a diplomatic solution to the standoff seems the most likely outcome.
I recognize that both Taiwan and the Ukraine are potential flashpoints, although invasions are unlikely, as the cost of initiating hostilities is very high for Russia, and also very high for China.
If both events occur, China and Russia will be mostly cut off from the world. They can play alone by themselves in the corner of the playground, and East vs West game is back on.
Experienced wrote: NPCexe wrote: Russia, a star on the rise? It's crazy how well this military industrial complex brainwashes the public to think Russia is anyone important on the world stage, meanwhile China is completely dominating every continent with their vast influence and a GDP that is several orders of magnitude bigger than tiny Russia.
If you want to look for a potential war, look to Taiwan. The delusion of Russia as anybody important on the world stage needs to stop. It's the same tired propaganda from the same tired playbook of the same tired old politicians/generals of the cold war era. It is a farce. Look to China for problems; Russia is a nobody. Think of Russia the way you think of Latvia, meaning never at all. Ukraine is not strategic to Russia, but it was to the USA because they effectively wanted to install missile silos in every country including Ukraine, and they have successfully done so for the last 2 decades. Romania, poland, turkey... the whole nation is surrounded in times of peace. At what point do we realize who the real aggressors are here historically? When's the last time Russia built missile silos in Cuba?
Obscure1 wrote: I truly hope that the guys are right and Putin is just bluffing.
I don't see anything about Putin's past indicates that he backs away from anything.
Put has built geopolitical bridges to China, to India, and is even making inroads to developing oil reserves in the Middle East.
Russia's star is on the rise while the USA and Europe are continually embroiled in infighting.
How important is the Ukraine to Europe or even the USA for that matter?
Important enough for Europe to freeze this winter for starters?
Important enough for the USA to start a war in the Black Sea in Russia's back yard when the Dems can't even get the votes from their own party to get anything done?
Putin is concerned that the Ukraine is letting the west into the hen house. I expect Putin will do what he thinks he has to do to protect Russia. He didn't blink when it came to taking over Crimea.
Yep
Was going to post about China and Taiwan - you beat me to the punch. lol
Would be interesting to get Migraine's take on all this from his perch in Thailand.