RE:Echelon Wealth - Buy - $1.00 target Report dated Nov 24/21. The July report had a TP of $1.70. There must have been another report prior to Nov 24 that reduced TP to $1.00 because analyst says little change to his current forecast. His July forecast was for revenue of $26.2 million revenue in 2023. Nov report shows $5.4 million revenue for 2023.
This means analyst was aware of reduced forecast volumes at Aldersyde prior to Nov 24 report while shareholders were not made aware of this until investor presentation was updated Dec 02. Echelon clients were given a head start to sell.
"With no significant impact to our C2023 forecasts given Aldersyde would not have been subject to the refinery fee, and with production levels averaging ~9,600 L/d in C2023, the $0.05/L impact to C2023 EBITDA is ~$0.18M. We now forecast $0.2M of EBITDA for C2023 versus $0.4M previously."