RE:RE:RE:RE:Recent CMO promotion/ announcement I hope so as well!
There are no guarantees.
Just seems time is running out and things are coimg to a head, the information flow dams will break soon and off we go,,,
i really don't know what to expect in the next 3 months with respect to NRs. I will explain...
Often in these scenarios I would expect the start of a flow of news that would start raising the SP., all moving into the big news release of a deal.
So will we see that?
I doubt it.
I don't think there is much more for ONC to say. They just went through a small run of news Q4 2021 and the market thumbed it all down, as it was not a deal, and SP reflects that and is under $2 CDN.
But what is left for ONC to say;
- Bracelet-1 safety data ? The market does not care about safety data anymore, we have seen that on the last few safety data NRs. The market is tired of that stuff.
- Bracelet-1 biomarker data is the big one we are waiting on, that will be used to define the Phase III scope.
- IRENE and Goblet are not related to MB so the market will not care either.
- as I previously noted, I do not expect a CAR T deal as IMHO the buyer will want to run that in house as well.
So IMHO the only real significant NR that will change the SP significantly will be Bracelet-1 data confirming the biobarker that will allow the final design of the Phase III registration trial.
Then following that, a partnership or buyout deal.
Ok, but will they actually release that data ?
I keep reading how competitive this biotech market is becoming and how more companies are trying to keep as much of their data consealed in house as possible so nobody steals their ideas and tries to copy a drug or process before they complete their own.
So, I have been considering this, and IMHO it's very plauseable that potential buyers are stating do not release the data, we want that kept in house. Thus the 'may be a potential predictive biomarker' and limited release of data on the conclusion of the biomarker to date.
So a further considerstion of mine is, if I was going to buy ONC and wanted that data all kept secret and in house, and along with the fact that I was privy to the Bracelet -1 'live data' and in the case of Roche, know exactly what pela does with my drug Tecenriq, I would be seriously considering buying out ONC prior to any biomarker confirmation NRs as then I would not have to publicize any data. I would likely want to keep the data in house.
So, in such a case the next NR would be a buyout.
This is the reason that I think there will be little warning and little SP change before a buyout. I don't think there is much left to say that the market will care about.
Now this is all speculation and no guarantee, but it is plausable, and something I have considered. Draw your own conclusions.
This is just a part of an analytical process in my mind as to what is going on and what where it is headed. I could be wrong.
So again, based on past events and release of NRs, i think it will be a buyout vs. a partnership, and I think there will be very little notice on a buyout.
I hope we just wake up to an NR one morning and the deal is done.
Good luck!
Merry Christmas !