Scotia Agrees, Gamba Overspends and Underperforms.... Latest Research (December 16, 2021): OUR TAKE: Mixed. Canacol's 2022 guidance points toward a fairly wide production range (mid-point -10% below consensus) and higher-than-expected capex that will be directed toward growing its 2P reserves (200% replacement target). The higher capex also relates to the deferrals of exploration activity (largely seismic) originally planned for 2021. While we understand the market has prioritized FCF and growing cash returns to shareholders, we believe that CNE should continue to allocate a material portion of cash flow to growing its reserve base ahead of the Medellin pipeline. However, we would prefer CNE to remain capital disciplined and fall toward the low-end of its 2022 capex range. We maintain our Sector Outperform rating, but have lowered our one-year target price to C$5.00 (vs C$5.50) per share, based on our revised Risked NAVPS of C$5.23 (vs C$5.51).