RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Drug Discovery ExpertThis is the market problem that is, unfortunately, not understood that well by the company. I think there's likely a lot of investors with the exact same viewpoint as you. In reality, the investment "story" (not yet a thesis since there's still nothing definitive with numbers to put around it) has changed 4 times already. And the first 2 underachieved (HIV drugs), #3 is on hold and we'll find out about #4. So it's definitely not an enviable record and the market understands that.
I think we all know the issue they will face if they don't create momentum around positive results and "feed" the market is that if there is any positive news to bring the valuation up, at every level they will confront investors bailing and correcting it back down. The end result is they won't get the market cap they think they will and will be consistently disappointed.
This will frustrate them, they will wonder why; yet, we know it's that there is no real audience of interested and informed investors on the sideline looking to buy in around an exciting "thesis". I get that they actually have not had any news and now is not the time anyway, but it will really be a test (if 1a and 1b turn out some interesting data) to see if they can craft a sophisticated, "best-in-class" effort to create a much, much larger informed, professional and supportive investor base with long-term investors, not uneducated punters. It's not easy and they are starting below ground zero as the loose investors bail on the way up or down in 2022. While we had heard a cap mkt stratetgy would be a top 5 priority, the only priority it's taken on is to file for different ways to raise money, potentially at these low levels if they get desperate. The Board is the only thing between shareholders and that, if it gets to that.
On the bright side, I think we do expect solid news based on all the evidence we have seen and heard, and corroborating it with the science in the SORT1 papers. And we have a new IR slot to fill and this time they know they should get someone who understands how to capitalize on a whole new platform they could use for cancer, and maybe being still early in NASH development. So instead of getting the #4 person at a mid bio-tech and giving them full reign, you may be able to get someone more tailored to what you think is coming down the pike. In fact, an IR hiring of someone more senior may be another good sign they are comfortable building the payroll based on their hunches around success. Reinvigorating the existing shareholder base and building one 5x the size can be done if the news is good. But you definitely need someone there do think about it 100% of the day. I really don't care where you locate the person, but just that they are top notch and management considers whatever ideas may come up.
PWIB123 wrote: I've read a few comments on other forums about investors losing patience, getting fed up with seeing a continually dropping share price, and selling their shares. I have no doubt some or even most of this is tax loss selling, but I'm afraid there is a building contingency of investors deciding just to move on. I find myself struggling to hold on too, and if it weren't for the knowledge harvested here, I would've sold out and moved on already. It's not fun being upside down. It's not fun hearing nothing from the company. It's not fun having less and less confidence in spite of seeing things that maybe should build confidence. Truth is, for me, this feels more like a complete gamble compared to when I initially got in even though it's probably less. The uncertainty level is high. My faith is rocked. I'm not even sure we can say the stock is so cheap that if they don't have good news soon that we still will hold the current value. That's not proving to be true, and it has to be making others nervous too.
Because it feels more like a gamble, I'm reluctant to buy back the shares I tax loss harvested over 31 days ago now between $3.40-$3.50. Kind of wish I had eliminated my entire postion and bought back in now. If I'm represenative of even a small contingency out there, Paul and THTX have their work cutout for them. I still own a fairly significant investment with around 50,000 shares, but it feels less sure than it did before and I defnitely own too much of this one stock. I'm a hold here now and not feeling very certain about buying back the shares I sold.
Thankfully you all regularly provide updates on why we can feel comfortable leaning into the future with the clues you uncover. Certainly no assurances, but some good reasons to believe. Without those, I would be liquidating my entire position. But still, I'm not real sure I want to allocate more of my capital to this stock at this point.