Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:4.00$ Now. Lets do this.

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Everyone likes to label a positive person. You are right though I don't throw out prices. I look for positive progress and believe positive progress improves share price.

Sure we could also get that from our banks but it's far less exciting.

That said you started a debate on expectations without actually listing your expectations. So if you really want to debate expectations I guess you can throw them on the board.

What is your expectation for June 30, 2023 for 

@ $65 oil
@ $70 oil
@ $75 oil
@ $80 oil
@ $90 oil


Re :"a disaster relative to expectations"

I guess it depends on your expectations but without those yes you can't have a proper debate. I think words like "disaster" are overused by some here but that's just me.

Now if your expectation is $50 I will certainly say $65 won't get you there....but again you have not posted your expectations.

JohnnyDoe wrote:

BayStreetWolfTO wrote: At $65 debt should be below 1.0x. If you are in the camp with Unlucky that this means the share price 18 months from now is still $4 than yes I disagree with both of you. Not much to debate.

I think as all our Cdn O&G pay off debt...even at $65...share prices appreciate. I guess you disagree.

Again I don't think oil will hover at $65 based on the macros we are seeing but to me that is just further upside.

 

JohnnyDoe wrote:

BayStreetWolfTO wrote: I will certainly agree to disagree. That said time always reveals the answer. I do look forward to the discussion with the group June 30, 2023!

The model I use even at $65 oil suggests lots of runway. That said I certainly agree the macro data suggests oil will cruise above a $65 average for 2022/23 however many things have changed over the last 10 years outside of the macro global oil supply thesis.

including;
F/X
BTE B/E point
BTE Production
BTE Asset qualtiy
Transmountain (Jan 2023?)

I will stick with my model and see where we land

One thing I won't do is get into the "this price before that price nonsense" that others love to preach.

I also support ALL Canadian oil and gas and believe the sector is going to look completely different in 18 months

Have a safe, healhy and happy 2022

JohnnyDoe wrote:

BayStreetWolfTO wrote: 2022 is going to be a great year with anything over $65

GrumpyMonk wrote: I think if WTI holds. And i think it will.
We will have a great January.
Then when this bad boy will start going with share buybacks, clearwater results.
It will fly !
Happy holidays.

 

I don't think so Wolf. Yes, 65 dollar oil pays down debt, I get that. But it's not going to materially move the stock price. You've said many times you're looking at a June 30, 2023 timeline. I don't think steady 65 does much for you between today and that date. For the company, sure, but for me and you, no I wouldn't expect much.
the good news is that the macro oil situation says the probability of oil being quite a bit higher than 65 over the next 18 months is very high. Omicron is nothing. The middle class have a travel war chest built up. Demand is going to rise, supply is going to linger. I think it's more likely we see 90 dollar oil than it lingering at 65. And that's where the multi bagger potential is

 

lots of runway for what? Yes at 65 they pay down debt, but slowly. Not really going to move the stock that much in 18 months.
does your model in some way predict price? I'll laugh if you say it does. You've never indicated a sell price or sell range, you've stuck to a timeline and I like that. I agree with it. If the macro conditions keep moving in the direction they are going and the wind does not change over 18 months, I think we'll be very happy with our bte investment. But don't fool yourself or otherwise mislead people into believing that 65 dollar oil is great. It's not. Not measured against the expectations that people have for Canadian small and mid cap O&G companies. I own bte, cpg, wcp, cj, tve, hwx. I'm expecting the macro conditions to lead to an oil price that results in all these stocks doubling over the next 18 months. If 18 months from now oil is 65, my stocks will not have doubled and something oil negative in the macro environment will have shifted.

 

classic passive aggressive. You don't want to debate what I actually said so you make something up and critique that. Yes paying down debt and achieving debt targets will raise the price. I think I was pretty clear on that
What I also said was that 65 oil isn't going to drive the price to the expectations most expect. I'm not here for 30% more. I'd happily take that on my bank stocks. On my oil stocks I'm looking for much more and we need higher oil to get there. 65 oil will be a disaster relative to expectations