Believe it or NotJ.P.Morgan sees gold price unable to withstand the Fed; falling to pre-pandemic levels in 2022 | Kitco News
My Comment: Of course, JP Morgan controls the gold paper market, but how can commodoties and especially oil which JPM forecasts to rise to $125/bbl do well in 2022 and not have gold also do well because of inflation ? I think the Fed will be forced to end tapering in 2022 once the stock market caves and they will have to reinstate QE. Of course, the Fed indices for inflation are being revised to show lower inflation, but consumers are not totally dumb about rising prices they see.
Excerpts: In its recently published 2022 outlook report, the bank expects gold prices to fall to pre-pandemic levels by the end of next year.
"An unwinding in ultra-accommodative central bank policy will be most outright bearish for gold and silver over the course of 2022," the analysts said. "From an average of $1,765/oz in Q1, gold prices are set to steadily decline over the course of next year to a Q4 average of $1,520/oz."
While the U.S. bank is bearish on gold through 2022, the bank is bullish on the rest of the commodity complex.
"Commodities are on pace to deliver the strongest year of returns since the early 2000s. A constructive economic outlook, depleted inventory levels and supply still struggling to respond to resurgent demand point to a second consecutive year of positive double-digit commodity returns in 2022," said Natasha Kaneva, Head of the Global Commodities Strategy at J.P. Morgan.
The bank is extremely bullish on oil prices ahead of the new year.
"We believe that oil is set to remain a major beneficiary of a continued economic reopening over the course of 2022. The last time consumption was as high as we forecast next year, U.S. shale drillers were pumping flat out, and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies were locked in a battle for market share," said Kaneva in the report.