RE:Unhedged Good evening Moon, this is a good question. I will try best to answer based on the data I have. I also welcome anyone to also work this out.
Baytex 2022 @ $65 (in their presentation)
Adjusted funds flow = 790M
Free cash flow = 340M
based on the AFF sensitivites holding all but WTI I get
Baytex 2022 @ $75
Adjusted funds flow = 974M
Free cash flow = 524M
However to your point this includes hedges...BUT is based on their projection of 81,500 boe/d
1. So looking at WTI hedges (ignoring WCS which I believe helps us and ignoring gas) the hedge impact at $75 is approx $107M on WTI
2. However if you were to get production to 85K (which would than be hedge free) assuming an Operating netback of $40 that would be an extra $50M and assuming incremental
Again rough napkin math but the net impact about -$57M for the risk mitigation (or -$0.10 cents per share)
So to answer the question
FCF @75 with 85K I guess 681M Unhedged
FCF @75 with 85K I guess 574M Hedged
Hopefully I asnwered the question but certainly I encourage anyone else to double check.
MooninPaPa wrote: Does anyone know what the unhedged FCF number will be next year? $75 oil/85000 barrels?